Good afternoon everyone! Snows are losing coverage across eastern NE and far eastern KS as of 2:50pm CST while we can still note a band of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times across a majority of MO, excluding the northeastern portions of the state where dry air at the low-levels is inhibiting most of the precipitation depicted by radar from reaching the ground. A sliver of freezing rain also extends along the southern-most two county rows in MO while warmer temperatures in the Boot Heel is keeping the dominant precipitation type as rain. Expect through the remainder of the afternoon and evening that the snows continue in a southeast fashion.
Here’s a look at the updated weather bulletins across the region: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect from north-central NE through southeastern NE into the eastern third of KS and a majority of MO. However, the vast majority of these advisories in NE and KS will come to an end over the next few hours (expiring by 7pm EST this evening). Precipitation hanging around longer in central/southeastern MO keeps these advisories in effect through late tonight. As we work into the day Saturday, we’d expect additional advisories to be issued ahead of our next storm system, generally for northern/eastern NE into IA.
Simulated radar through 3am CST Saturday: Light snows in eastern NE/KS will continue to lose coverage through the evening hours with these areas dry by 9pm CST. Snow and sleet in central MO as well as freezing rain far south will also push southeastward during this timeframe, continuing to make for a mess of things even after the precipitation largely comes to an end around 12-1am CST tonight. However, watch for some lingering patchy freezing drizzle to persist through the night in far southern MO as the low-levels of the atmosphere remain saturated.
Total additional snowfall through 3am CST tonight reveals a likely corridor within east-central MO that receives 2-4″ more inches of more snow before the snows come to an end late in the evening. The heaviest of the snow is done for in eastern NE/KS but we can’t rule out a few additional patches of up to 0.5″ of snow. Dry air eating at the northern periphery of the system should still keep many areas in northeastern MO dry. Sleet and freezing rain mixing in further south across the remainder of southern MO will hinder snowfall totals with an additional light glaze of ice likely.
Our next system quickly follows Saturday afternoon into the night with scattered snow showers breaking out in eastern KS around the lunch hour and spreading north and eastward into western MO and a majority of NE by 6pm CST. Through the nighttime hours, snow coverage will continue to increase and lift slightly further north into northern/eastern NE and all of IA while scattered snow/rain chances will be more dominant in eastern KS into MO. Watch for some freezing rain to mix in at times in southern MO Saturday night. Given a ribbon of upper-level energy persisting across the northern portions of the region Sunday (mainly northern NE into IA), areas of light snow are expected to remain that start to gradually weaken and fade in coverage Sunday night with only light flurries remaining by Monday morning. During a majority of this time, the snows should remain light to moderate in nature, but given the elongated timespan of which this should occur, snow-covered and slick road conditions should be anticipated. By the end of this loop, watch for another pulse of snow showers, this time entering western KS, to begin lifting northeastward Monday morning.
Latest thoughts on Saturday afternoon through Sunday night: The heaviest snow totals will be located over the northern portions of the region where a band of 3-6″ of snow is likely (across the northeastern half of NE into IA). A stripe of 6-9″ of snow also extends into far northeastern NE and northwestern IA. This may need to be extended further southeast with time to encompass more of western/central IA and eastern NE, but are holding off on this for now and taking the more conservative route. However, do realize that locally higher amounts are expected in the aforementioned areas. Snows of 1-3″ likely extends southward into the North Platte and Kansas City areas while also trending less the further south you head from there. There still remains quite a bit of discrepancies in the data regarding snows and their respective amounts, so definitely check back heading into tomorrow as changes may be needed.
Some additional minor freezing rain is possible Saturday night mainly across the southern tier of MO that could result in a light glaze of ice of 0.05-0.1″. This by no means will be widespread and should remain scattered, but a risk to highlight never-the-less. Though not shown, trace amounts of ice will be possible in southeastern KS.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!