Good morning everyone! The storm system that brought snow and ice accumulations to far southern MO, especially the Bootheel, is gradually working eastward with most of the precipitation coming to an end across the area. Elsewhere, dry weather has continued to linger and this will be the case today into Monday as well.
Here’s a look at current temperatures (as of 7:55am CST) across the region. The vast majority have dropped to the lower 20s with many teens showing up as well. Cloud cover hanging on in far southern MO has kept temperatures into the mid 20s. Temperatures will warm nicely heading through the day due to a mix of sun and clouds, but will remain on the chilly side.
Overall, we are looking at a mix of sun and clouds across a majority of the area today thanks to a lack of substantial forcing and dryness. The outflow from the storm system south and east of the region will keep mid-upper level clouds around in southeastern MO. We’ll watch a piece of energy swing southward into the region today, but will only provide areas of clouds more than anything. More on this below.
This upper-level feature described above will dig into portions of NE this afternoon and evening while meandering south into KS overnight into Monday morning. While there is a decent amount of energy attached to this feature, vast amounts of dry air in the low-mid levels will prevent precipitation chances resulting in the area remaining dry through tonight. However, it will likely lead to areas of cloud with higher saturation in the upper-levels. Even with the dryness below the scattered cloud deck, we can’t rule out a few flurries/isolated snow showers into tonight but this threat is quite minimal.
We’ll look at an additional opportunity for patchy fog risks late tonight into Monday morning. The areas at risk for this patchy fog include IA, northern MO, eastern NE and northeastern KS (depicted in the darker shadings). Temperatures across these areas will be well below freezing so patchy freezing fog will be a concern during this timespan. During the morning hours Monday, any areas of fog in the region will slowly erode as the sun above the low-level cloud deck warms the surface layer.
Here’s a simulation of total cloud cover through the daytime hours Monday: Cloud cover Monday morning will be largely dependent on the location of fog development in the previously aforementioned areas while some upper-level clouds will hang around in southeastern MO. Heading into the afternoon hours, a majority of the region will be cast in plentiful sunshine with scattered clouds in IA and southeastern MO. The next wave of energy to watch will begin to enter the High Plains late afternoon which will bring scattered clouds back to the area.
The next disturbance set to enter the High Plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning will be battling copious amounts of dry air in the mid-levels. Due to these circumstances, precipitation chances will remain very low across the area Monday night and even through the daytime hours Tuesday. There will be enough forcing for clouds to spread west to east across the region as this feature progresses eastward Tuesday. A few scattered snow showers will be possible in northwestern NE, however.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days from various model solutions: Over the last 24 hours there have been quite a few discrepancies in the model data regarding the evolution of precipitation chances mid-late week. Most data works the wave Tuesday eastward and develops light precipitation over IA and MO Tuesday night into Wednesday before exiting the region. However, some of the model guidance defers from this point with the late-week system. The GFS Parallel and the European at this time keep it more suppressed with southern MO being the only area largely affected with the ICON and GFS developing it slightly further north. Regardless, this will be something to watch going forward as changes will be possible. One thing these models have in common is keeping KS and NE on the drier side through the next week.
High temperatures over the next four days: We remain on the chilly side again today across portions of NE and IA as some won’t make it out of the 20s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer further south in KS where upper 30s to mid 40s are likely. We’ll continue to warm slightly Monday and especially Tuesday with 40s working in across KS and MO Monday and areas of 50s possible Tuesday. The snowpack in NE and IA will hinder temperatures from warming much as these areas should stay in the 30s.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: With high pressure overhead and the storm system that impacted the far southern portions of MO working east, colder temperatures will work in from the Northern Plains and allow temperatures to fall even further Monday morning where widespread teens are likely in IA, NE, northern KS and northern MO. Some locations in NE and western IA will fall into the single digits due to decent snowpack remaining. Low temperatures will moderate somewhat Tuesday morning where upper teens to mid 20s are expected for most locations.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Generally speaking…winds will remain relatively light through Monday due to high pressure settled into the area with gusts at most approaching 20mph.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: A period of moderation will work into the area mid-week into the weekend.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!