Good afternoon everyone! This will be a brief update on the storm system clipping the far southern portions of the state. Cloud cover has been steadily increasing across the state, especially over the southern sections as the storm system we’ve been tracking inches closer to impacting the far southern areas. The northern half of the state is more draped with upper-level clouds that are streaming out and ahead of this storm system. Also interesting to note is the stripe of snow being depicted on satellite below the upper-level clouds stretching from Kansas City to north of St. Louis.
Not much in the way of trends can be noted with the afternoon data regarding the incoming storm system set to impact the far southern sections of the state. The vast majority of MO will stay dry through the duration of the event as high pressure to the north wins out and suppresses most of the precipitation. However, the northern periphery of the precipitation still remains on course to impact the far southern-most row of counties in MO into the Bootheel as we progress late tonight into the morning hours Saturday. Shown below is a simulated radar which runs from 6pm CST this evening through 10am EST Sunday. Precipitation coverage will slowly spread northward from AR and impact the Bootheel mainly after 3am tonight with this activity lifting into the southern-most row of counties mainly after 6am Saturday. Various model guidance offers different solutions for this complex system, but the general consensus is that precipitation will initially start off as a mixed bag of rain, freezing rain and snow with a gradual transition to mostly snow due to dynamic cooling during the morning hours Saturday. However, given the thermal profile of the atmosphere, some freezing rain may mix in at times during the remainder of the day. High pressure suppression will keep this system from going further north and may even start to push it back somewhat further south Saturday evening. This precipitation would clear the southern-most row of counties but impacts from freezing rain would remain Saturday night in the Bootheel. As the system works eastward, so will the precipitation with virtually all areas becoming clear of the snow/freezing rain by 6am CST Sunday.
Here’s a look at temperatures through the duration of the event: Temperatures will be a key player in which precipitation type the aforementioned areas above will observe. Initially, temperatures will be around freezing or slightly below which will allow for the mixed bag of precipitation to shift to snow. However, warmer air aloft will lift in Saturday night and any areas still observing precipitation at this point (mostly the Bootheel) will observe freezing rain. Colder air at the surface will funnel southward Saturday night with most locations well into the low 20s by 6am CST Sunday.
Sky cover forecast for Saturday: Mid-upper level clouds will remain draped across the southern half of the state with snows likely over the far southern areas. The cloud cover will only reach so far north, with the further north you head across the state becoming increasingly less cloudy. Locations such as Kansas City, Macon and Columbia are expected to observe a mix of sun and clouds while Springfield and Poplar Bluff are stuck under a heavy blanket of clouds.
Here’s an updated snowfall potential through early Sunday: Overall most of the state stays clear of the snows but the southern-most row of counties are expected to receive a general 1″ or less before the storm system clears the region. The highest totals at this time still appear to remain in northern AR but the Bootheel can observe anywhere from 1-3″+ of snow. As noted in this morning’s update, any additional fluctuations in track will have major ramifications on whether these locations even observe snow or not. Some models are modest on snow and keep the state mostly clear of snow activity, but a majority of guidance brings a sliver of snow to the aforementioned areas. Slick spots will be likely with these snows and the falling surface temperatures so be weary if traveling.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!