Good afternoon everyone! The major storm system that brought heavy snow accumulations north and west of the state is only a fraction of its former self, bringing areas of light snow to the state, mainly in southwestern portions as of 3pm CST. However, there are some scattered snow showers and flurries developing further east in eastern IA. As we continue to progress through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, this activity will lift east, eventually bringing an end to the light snows for most tonight.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Saturday: Areas of light snow lingering in southwestern IA will progress eastward early evening and phase with energy further east and continue light snows in eastern IA through the evening hours. As we head towards the midnight hour, the bulk of the activity will have lifted into the Great Lakes region, though some residual moisture from a shortwave trough will persist scattered snow shower activity in far eastern IA. By the end of this loop (6am CST), any scattered snow showers/flurries will be on the downward trend and exiting.
With the additional snow showers this evening in portions of IA, especially along and north of I-80, additional snow accumulations of ~0.5″ will be possible. A localized pocket near 1″ can’t be ruled out, mainly in northeastern IA. While it can snow south of I-80, any accumulations will be few and far between. Temperatures took a nose dive yesterday with virtually the entire state below 25ºF at this time. Due to these temperatures and light snow falling, slick spots will be possible so definitely be mindful if traveling this evening.
The arctic front has passed the region and has ushered in much cooler air in its place (as mentioned above). Temperatures will continue to fall tonight and by the time 6am CST Saturday rolls around (shown below), the vast majority of the state will be below 20ºF. As you head west, temperatures decrease even further with cities such as Des Moines waking up to low teens while locations further north and west will dip into the single digits. Some areas in far northwestern IA will fall below 0ºF due to fresh snow cover with wind chills much lower than the actual temperature.
Saturday and Sunday will be virtually dry across the state with a mix of sun and clouds expected. An arctic front will be located north and west of the state Sunday night which should keep most of the state dry through this time as snows will be more likely in the Northern Plains and Nebraska. However, there is also a system tracking to our southeast that will clip the eastern third of the state with rain starting early Monday morning and lingering through the remainder of the day. It is looking more likely than not that this system and the Northern Plains piece of energy will phase too late and not allow for any significant snows. There is a chance on the backside of southeast storm system that just enough cold air could allow for a transition to snow in far eastern IA Monday afternoon, but confidence remains low at this time. Otherwise, this wave exits and the Northern Plains piece of energy slowly drifts southeast and brings light snow showers to northern IA late Monday into Monday night.
Here are various ensemble runs for snowfall for the storm system Monday: Some of these runs brings a swath of accumulating snow to the eastern portions of the state while others are more hesitant. Regardless, the potential is there for accumulating snows in these areas depending on how much cold air can intrude, but as previously stated our confidence remains low at this time.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!