12-27-19 Tovar St. Louis: Discussing heavy rain, thunderstorms, and potential severe weather this weekend. MG.

Missouri Video:

Small chances for some sprinkles develop this afternoon with chances for rain increasing as we head into into the overnight.  Rain will begin to expand in coverage from west to east Saturday afternoon into the evening.  Best chances for stronger storms looks to be from about 9 PM SAT to 6 AM SUN morning with the primary threat being that of strong wind gust.  Pockets of heavy/ moderate rain will be possible as well.  Quiet weather moves in behind this system with more settled weather expected for New Years Day.  No wintry weather is expected for the St. Louis area.  Here is a look at preferred simulated radar guidance from 3 PM today through 3 PM Monday.

Here is a look at preferred model rainfall accumulation through Monday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe weather for the southern half of Missouri with the primary risk being that of strong wind gust.  The “dark green” risk area could be expanded slightly to the north but overall, this area conveys the risk adequately for the stronger wind gust.

Wind guidance over the next 4 days:

Temperature Charts: