12-18-18 IN/IL/OH: Discussing late week inclement weather risks…wintry mischief possible leading up to Christmas? K.

Today’s video:

Overall today and most of Wednesday’s weather will remain quiet with widespread sunshine and “mild” air for this time of the year. Our inclement weather risks don’t look to develop until really moving into daybreak on Thursday morning from south to north, where some rain showers start to develop on and off Region-wide on Thursday. This same system will draw in colder air on the backside of the low pressure system into Friday where we think some changeover to snow showers can’t be ruled out especially across eastern IL into IN and especially OH. *If* the system slows down at all and phases quicker, a strong hit of snow can’t be ruled out for Ohio locations (something we will just need to update frequently on):

Total precipitation as this system moves in and out is below…again, the area more conducive for higher precipitation exceeding 0.50-1.0″ will be far eastern Indiana, Ohio and eastern half of Kentucky (can’t rule out some low-lying area flooding as well given this past weekend rainfall). Otherwise, most of us see the potential for ~0.1-0.5″. If this system phases quicker it can’t be ruled out this swath of heavier can trend slightly further west as well:

The next little weak disturbance we need watch closely is a little “clipper” like wave on Sunday morning into the afternoon…the American GFS data is a little drier at the surface vs the European so confidence is lower on the exact specifics here but it’s something that needs watching closely:

Right now this is the area preliminarily we are watching for potential wintry impacts this coming Sunday and Christmas Day…confidence is obviously on the lower side of things and will adjust this often but there is multiple weather models that indicate upper level energy conducive enough for wintry weather:

High temperatures over the next 4 days:

Low temperatures over the next 4 days:

Wind forecast through late week:

High/low temperatures over the next 15 days…you can definitely see the colder trend in temps leading up to Christmas Day into the New Year as we’ve been discussing in the long-range updates: