Good morning everyone! Our mild stretch of days continues today with temperatures as of 9:30am CST already above freezing for many locations in eastern SD and southern MN while 20s are still hanging around in ND, western SD and northwestern MN. As we progress through the day, temperatures will continue to climb, especially in SD where 40s for highs are expected. Dry weather is to be expected once again today with many observing a good deal of sunshine. More on this below.
The weak disturbance that followed along the tail-end of the dry cold front last night is beginning to exit the southeastern portions of the area. Dry air at most levels of the atmosphere will continue to inhibit any rainfall chances, but will bring morning clouds to southern MN before exiting early this afternoon. Additional upper-level clouds will work through a majority of ND and northern SD today, but even these areas will get some peaks of sunshine. Elsewhere, a mix of sun and clouds will dominate. Today’s sky cover forecast:
We’ll work in another chance for freezing fog tonight into Monday morning as winds decrease and high pressure remains settled overhead. The areas at risk for this patchy freezing fog include portions of SD, in particular the western and southeastern sections of the state. Models have trended away from most fog risks in northeastern ND and southwestern MN. Temperatures in these areas will fall below freezing tonight, so a few slick spots will be possible. The fog may be slow to erode in western SD Monday morning, so it may last even into the early afternoon hours before completely dissipating.
Looking ahead to Monday, another day of tranquil weather will be on tap for virtually the entire region. There will be less scattered cloud cover on average across the area, so some areas may remain sunny through the day (including southeastern ND, northeastern SD and west-central MN). Morning fog was taken into account with the sky cover forecast in portions of SD, so bear in mind that some areas that observe patchy fog may not see some sun in the morning. Weak pieces of energy clipping the far northern portions of the region will lead to these areas having the best chances for increased cloud cover, but should still experience a mix of sun and clouds.
The patchy freezing fog risks continue Monday night into Tuesday morning in eastern SD while also including central ND. Temperatures will fall into the 20s during this time, so any fog that develops could lead to a few slick spots. As Tuesday morning progresses, this fog should gradually erode.
Here’s a look at 7-day precipitation from the European Model (first image): Due to the northern displaced jet, an overall quieter pattern will persist through this timespan with only weak disturbances to track. Continuous weak energy clipping the far northern portions of ND Monday night into Tuesday morning could lead to brief freezing drizzle before lifting back into southern Canada. However, a drier column of air shows up on soundings above the surface layer which could evaporate any precipitation before reaching the surface (known as a virga). This makes the threat rather minimal at this time. We’ll need to watch late Tuesday night into Wednesday for the chance of scattered light rain showers with the possibility of wintry precipitation mixing in, but model data continues to point towards this wave staying weak. The next system won’t follow until next weekend, which could provide better wintry opportunities. Even with these systems, the split flow pattern isn’t helping to produce stronger systems and should allow for dry anomalies (percentage of normal shown in the second image), especially the further south you head. Some areas in SD may not observe any measurable precipitation this week.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: As we continue our period of moderation, temperatures will end up above average for December standards. The vast majority of SD will warm into the 40s today with some areas possibly clipping the 50ºF mark. Elsewhere will be on the cooler with 30s in MN and upper 20s in northern ND. Monday morning lows in the teens are likely in northern MN and northeastern ND with 20s expected elsewhere. Daytime highs Monday will be slightly cooler compared with today, but still feature temperatures in the 40s in SD and southwestern ND and 30s in MN and northeastern ND. Morning lows Tuesday will be on the milder side with 20s expected for most.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Strong winds over the Dakotas gradually faded in intensity as they progressed through eastern ND into northern MN this morning. However, gusts between 25-30 mph will be possible at times through the day before settling down into tonight. Winds will be on the lighter side Monday and Tuesday until Wednesday when we usher in another another windy day across the Dakotas with gusts upwards of 40mph possible.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls: We continue our period of moderation into early next weekend.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!