Good morning everyone! Over the last 24 hours we have finally been able to work out the pesky upper-level low that brought periods of rain to southeastern MO between Thursday to Saturday. Overall, we are looking at quite the turnaround today with nice weather expected area-wide. Shown below is the precipitation analysis over the last 72 hours which depicts widespread 1-2″ of rain fell along and south of the I-44 corridor with rainfall dropping off considerably the further north and west you head. Some areas south of St. Louis received 2.5″ of rain. MO will join the rest of the region in a quiet stretch of weather that is expected to last through the day Tuesday.
Surface high pressure over the next few days will help to suppress any rain risks across the region. However, it won’t prevent a couple disturbances from progressing through the region. The first weak wave of energy we are watching is lifting through the northern portions of the area currently and is on a southeast trajectory through the remainder of the region today. The high pressure overhead is providing substantial amounts of dry air through most layers of the atmosphere which is expected to hinder any form of precipitation. Scattered upper-level clouds are the only form of convection that will likely accompany this wave as it works through the region today. If you’re wanting sunshine you will be in luck as the remainder of the weekend will feature large amounts of it, excluding the scattered cloud coverage working through the region in association with this wave.
Only very isolated patchy fog was able to develop last night into this morning, but we are eyeing a slightly better risk for patchy freezing fog tonight into Monday morning (shown below). However, most of the patchy fog development should stay mostly confined to low-lying locations in NE, western IA and northwestern MO. The best chance for freezing fog will be in western IA given some snowpack remain in the area. Slick spots will be possible in areas that develop fog tonight into Monday morning due to temperatures below 32ºF.
We’re looking at another nice day for virtually the entire area again Monday with sunshine remaining the dominant weather story. There will be some upper-level energy starting to lift northward from the Southern Plains into the southwestern portions of the area starting Monday afternoon. This will allow for mid-high level clouds to progress into these areas that gradually continues to lift northward Monday night into the day Tuesday. As is the case with today, dry air will likely inhibit any precipitation that may develop within the clouds, so rain is not expected.
Here’s a simulation of cloud cover through Tuesday morning: As previously discussed, scattered upper-level clouds will glide through portions of the region today (especially northeastern areas) but overall expecting mostly sunny conditions for most. The model nicely picks out where areas of patchy freezing fog may develop this evening through Monday morning, mainly in NE, western IA and northwestern MO. Elsewhere will have a clear night of weather. Working into Monday afternoon, we start to note areas of cloud cover pushing into southern KS that gradually lifts northeastward into Monday night. Tuesday morning will feature a mix of sun and clouds across the area.
Check out total precipitation (first image) over the next 7 days…still eyeing an unusually quiet pattern for most in NE and KS due to the split flow pattern the Central US is experiencing right now. Our next opportunity for shower activity isn’t expected until late Tuesday night, but more likely Wednesday in MO and IA. This upcoming system likely will exit the region Friday night. The second image below reveals 7-day precipitation anomaly which shows most in NE, KS and western IA staying far below average in the precipitation department while eastern IA into MO still stay below normal.
High temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures in the 50s will be prevalent in MO and KS while cooler temps in the 40s will remain likely further north in portions of NE and IA today. Remaining snow cover in northern IA may hinder highs from reaching above 40ºF. Monday high temperatures will be similar to today’s, but slightly cooler temperatures are expected in IA and northern MO while it warms further in the NE Panhandle. This same general pattern will be found across the region Tuesday and even into Wednesday.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Monday morning lows will fall well into the 20s for the vast majority with even some teens showing up in areas that still have snow cover (northwestern IA). Slightly warmer air will push back into the region Tuesday morning but temperatures will stay generally at or below 32ºF. We’ll get a stronger push of warmer air Wednesday morning where some locations in southeastern KS/southwestern MO may fail to dip below 40ºF.
Wind forecast over the next four days: High pressure today will keep the winds across the area generally variable. There will be a slight uptick Monday but gusts will still generally remain at 25mph or below. As we work in a disturbance Wednesday, winds will pick up with breezy conditions at times, especially over the High Plains.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Our moderation period continues through the upcoming work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!