Good afternoon everyone! We are tracking areas of light rain progressing through portions of southern/southeastern MO, generally along and south of the I-44 corridor as of 3:40pm CST. The activity we are observing continues to be associated with an upper-level low pressure system that is slowly working eastward, but will continue to supply an ample moisture stream to the previously aforementioned areas into early Saturday afternoon before gradually exiting after that time. Locations north of the I-44 corridor will remain largely unaffected by this system at this point in time and remain on the drier side.
Here’s an updated synopsis of what to expect progressing into Saturday: The source of the dreariness and overall wet timespan through this duration is the result of an upper-level low remaining unattached to the overall upper-air pattern. The northern jet stream will remain well off to the north in southern Canada and with this system not riding this feature, it will allow for the slow movement eastward. As a result of this, periods of rain (perhaps heavy at times) will lift through the southern/southeastern portions of the state into Saturday before it starts to push east and brings an end to the rains west to east. This will be especially true for locations south of the I-44 corridor where the greater focus of energy will reside.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST Saturday: As the low pressure system continues its progression eastward tonight into Saturday, the rains will wrap around the northwestern periphery of the system generally along and south of the I-44 corridor. While rain activity is light at the current time, an uptick in coverage and intensity is expected into tonight. Working into Saturday morning, the rain intensity and coverage will start to dwindle with only areas of light showers and drizzle hanging around in southeastern MO after 3pm CST Saturday. Virtually all precipitation will have either faded or exited to the east Saturday evening. Elsewhere, dry weather will prevail with a nice weekend on tap!
There is the concern for the development of patchy fog in the northern half of the state starting this evening and especially into the overnight/early morning hours Saturday. Not everyone will observe fog but something to note regardless. Temperatures in these areas will fall into the 20s tonight, so freezing fog is a risk that will linger until about 10am CST when the temperatures begin to climb. A few slick spots will be possible in areas that observe fog.
Here’s a look at the sky cover conditions across the state during the day Saturday: In general, we’re looking at a nice day full of sunshine across northern areas with even western MO cashing in on some sunshine as well. Pending morning fog, some areas will be draped under a low-hanging cloud deck (especially near the MO/IA border) before it erodes with daytime heating. Elsewhere, clouds and precipitation will remain likely in southeastern MO through this timeframe as we continue to feel the impacts from the low pressure system over the Southeastern US.
Total precipitation through 6pm CST Saturday reveals areas north of the dashed line (roughly the I-44 corridor) will observe little in the way of precipitation, especially the further north you’re located. However, areas south of this corridor will observe an additional 0.5-1.5″ of rain before all is set and done. Due to these hefty rainfall amounts, Flood Watches have been issued for portions of southeastern MO where low-land flooding will be possible given the steady stream of moisture into the region.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!