Good Thursday afternoon! The focus of this update will be covering the outlook ahead regarding snow chances over the next week. A pesky, generally light snow event is working across the central U.S. today, this will really allow lake effect-snow to kick-up tomorrow into the weekend as the system phases over the Great Lakes. Next week, eyes will be on a potential eastern U.S. storm system as another very strong arctic blast drops into the central U.S – this is the system many are curious about.
The cold coming over the next week is remarkable for early to mid November. Comparable to the record cold wave that hit back in mid-November 2014. Check out the forecast temperature anomalies over the next week off the European model. Some areas over the central U.S. will be 15-20ºF below normal!! Meanwhile in Florida….
In the short-term, snow continues to work east over the central Plains and will impact portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Friday. As this disturbance phases with an upper-level trough diving south over the upper Midwest, the low will strengthen as it moves off into Ontario and strong Northwest winds will kick up the lake-effect snow machine Friday and Saturday. As this storm phases, it helps draw very cold, arctic air further south across the central and eastern U.S.
Let’s dive into next week! We see another large dip in the jet stream early next week, all the way down to Texas. We’ll see a disturbance dropping out of the Rockies into the southern Plains Sunday night into Monday, which then merges with another system along the Gulf coast. This system then looks to ride northeast from the Gulf Coast through the Eastern U.S.
Despite an interesting looking set-up, this may not be what true snow lovers are looking for. What looks to be happening is the low is transferring into a coastal low. This causes the precipitation shield to weaken as it moves into the Ohio Valley, then can strengthen again as the coastal low ramps up in the Northeast. The data continues to indicate a swath of at least light accumulating snows on the northwest side of the system’s track. The latest GERMAN model is shown below, which is similar to the European solution.
Right now, our best guess points to higher snow potential in the southern Plains, then weakening possibly across the Ohio Valley, then re-organizing as it works into the Northeast. I highlighted in purple where my confidence is higher for snow accumulation potential, areas in blue likely see a swath of light snow. ***Keep in mind this will change as we get closer and nothing is set in stone. We can’t rule out the potential for this system to trend stronger again on the data – we’ll just have to watch the trends over the next few days.***
Once this system departs – much of the country works in a dry pattern next week, then we work back in more normal temperatures by next weekend.
We’ll have our next blog coming up on Tuesday to talk about all things winter! If you or your business deals with snow removal, you are watching the forecast closely as we head into winter. We can offer you can an accurate forecast with attention to detail, certified snow totals after a storm, and 24/7 on-call support!! Inquire today at bamwx.com/contact-us.
***If your business this winter relies on real-time updates we recommend signing up for our text alert service (this is an additional service) to get real-time updates regarding wintry precipitation/temps/risks right to your cell phone. Here’s a sample of what that looks like below. With this very cold pattern settling in ahead we recommend those that push snow/salt to be gearing up and getting equipment ready. To get more information on this email us at “[email protected]” for more!***
-Nathan Kitchens
