Good afternoon everyone! The mix of rain and snows earlier today have gradually transitioned into a majority rain event as temperatures have warmed through the course of the day. We continue to track this disturbance across the region bring light rains to the southern two-thirds of MN, eastern SD and eastern ND with the only remaining light snow activity on the western periphery of the light rains in central NE (though substantially light). This wave will continue to lift northeastward through the remainder of today into tonight with the northwestern periphery of the rain shield in northwestern MN gradually transitioning back into snow.
Simulated radar through 9am CST Tuesday: Light rains lift northeastward across the southern two-thirds of MN into early night with most rain activity departing eastern SD around 12am CST. A very light mix of rain and snow will slowly work across eastern ND into early night with more transitions of rain to snow expected near the ND/MN border. As the night progresses, rains along the northwestern periphery of the current disturbance in northwestern MN will gradually shift to snow showers as dynamic cooling (saturating the lower layers of the atmosphere, causing a drop in temperature) takes effect. This stripe of snow across portions of northwestern MN will gradually work eastward bringing snow showers to central MN by Tuesday morning. Light rains will linger across east-central MN. Some light snow showers are also possible in the Arrowhead. Behind this wave, a new disturbance drops out of Canada into northern ND bringing snow showers Tuesday morning.
Here’s the general synopsis regarding this next wave of energy as it works into ND Tuesday: We’ll gradually push the disturbance today further east into tomorrow with the stripe of snow continuing across portions of northern MN while the next disturbance brings additional snows to northern and eastern ND. We are particularly interested in this wave given the dynamics at play, including sufficient upward motion in the lower-levels and warm air advection. These two variables together can aid in snow development that will lead to some light snow accumulations.
Simulated radar from 9am CST Tuesday through 12pm CST Wednesday: Rain with the main low will persist across east-central MN with snows more likely extending westward across central/northwestern MN into northern/eastern ND. The light rains in east-central MN will also gradually transition to snow as the arctic front passes Tuesday afternoon and evening. Through the overnight hours, snow showers will shift eastward out of eastern ND while continuing across the northern two-thirds of MN. These snows will likely clip far northeastern SD. Snows will taper in coverage late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with most snow coverage out of the area by 12pm CST Wednesday. Elsewhere, a few light snow showers may clip far southwestern SD with a weak pulse of energy lifting into areas further south.
Total snowfall through 12pm CST Wednesday: Snowfall amounts will generally range from 1-2.5″ across northern/eastern ND into northern MN as we work out the current disturbance and bring in the new wave from southern Canada. The snows won’t be uniform, so some localized pockets of 3″+ are possible while others receive less than 1″. A localized pocket of 1″+ is also possible in far northeastern SD as model data remains firm in this area. Due to the fresh snow cover coming with these disturbances, some locations in northern ND may drop as low as the mid teens Wednesday morning.
Total precipitation through 12pm CST Wednesday: The highest liquid amounts through this time will be across central MN where 0.25-0.75″ is expected between the two systems. Further north and south across the northern third of MN and southwestern MN will observe generally 0.1-0.3″ of liquid. Snowfall-equivalent liquid of 0.1-0.3″ is expected in northern/eastern ND. Areas across southwestern ND into western SD will stay generally drier, but cold.
Winds will remain generally breezy through the period with wind gusts upwards of 35mph likely in the Dakotas through the day Tuesday and MN Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Winds will fade west to east Wednesday.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!