Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding the rains this evening as well as isolated rain chances through Wednesday morning. We’re watching the shield of rains that worked through MO this morning into early afternoon continue to impact the eastern third of the state as of 2:50pm CST. Further northwest near the center of low pressure, wrap-around rains are persisting across IA while also gradually lifting out of eastern NE. Drier weather is the story further west of these locations, but there are some spotty scattered showers working across central NE and portions of the NE Panhandle.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Tuesday: Moderate rain activity with a few embedded storms will continue to lift eastward through the remainder of the afternoon hours, gradually working out of all of eastern MO by 9pm CST while we still note wrap-around rain activity across IA into tonight. The low pressure system associated with these rains pushes northeastward and so will the rains across the state. Most of these showers will lift off to the northeast by the end of this loop (6am CST). Elsewhere, the isolated shower activity over central NE drops southeastward, weakening in the process into the late evening hours as it progresses into southeastern NE and far northeastern KS. A few light sprinkles are possible in northern MO (excluding the main wave exiting) late in the evening. Another weak piece of energy bringing light showers to portions of the NE Panhandle will slowly progress ESE, bringing isolated showers and perhaps a couple storms to additional portions of western NE and western KS tonight. Colder temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning may transition the light rain showers in the far western portions of the NE Panhandle into snow, but generally shouldn’t amount to anything. The model shown below is likely a tad underdone with the isolated shower/storm activity in western KS late tonight.
Here’s the general idea going through the day Tuesday. The weak piece of upper-level energy lifting into the NE Panhandle currently will continue to bring isolated shower (perhaps storm) chances into tonight across the High Plains before pushing eastward Tuesday, bringing these rain risks to the rest of KS and eventually the northern two-thirds of MO. This disturbance will be battling some low-level dry air that will need to be overcame for any of the precipitation to reach the ground. A rumble of thunder or two are possible during the day Tuesday with these showers.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Tuesday through 6am CST Wednesday: We watch light patches of showers work across KS during the morning and afternoon hours with the northern two-thirds of MO gradually observing light showers starting early afternoon and persisting through the evening hours. This activity will weaken late Tuesday with an uptick in light shower coverage possible across far southern MO Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Further west across western NE, a mix of very light rain/snow showers are likely from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
Total rainfall through 3pm CST Tuesday: Rains coming to an end across portions of eastern MO will drop an additional 0.1-0.5″ when all is set and done with locally higher amounts possible in the Boot Heel. Wrap-around rains in IA will bring an additional 0.1-0.5″ as well. Isolated rain chances in the NE Panhandle and portions of KS can drop locally 0.1-0.3″ of rain.
Strong winds accompanying this storm system today will bring wind gusts upwards of 35mph at times this evening across the western two-thirds of NE into northwestern KS as well as southeastern MO. These winds will gradually decrease tonight with an uptick in winds expected again tomorrow across IA Tuesday with gusts upwards of 35mph.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!