Good morning everyone! We are tracking the disturbance that lifted into the western Dakotas last night continue to slowly track southeastward this morning with snows on the northern periphery in central ND and light rain showers to the south into SD. To the east, the precipitation is more scattered in nature with light snow showers near Fargo and light rain showers in far southern MN. The Black Hills continue to see snow this morning as well while Rapid City off to the east is dealing with a cold rain. This disturbance will slowly progress southeastward through the day with snow coverage dwindling.
There are a few weather bulletins to take note this morning, the first being Winter Weather Advisories in effect across western ND until 1pm CDT for an additional up to 2″ of snow. Winter Weather Advisories are also in effect in the Black Hills given the light snow falling. Strong winds are accompanying this storm system, mainly across western SD where Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings are in effect.
Simulated radar through 4pm CDT today: We’ll continue to find light snows along the north periphery of the precipitation coverage across north-central and southern ND through the morning hours while gradually progressing southward. Precipitation in the form of rains are still the most prevalent in northern SD early this morning but as we work into late morning and early afternoon we’ll see more of a mix of rain and snow. This precipitation will also spread further east into southern MN into late morning and early afternoon with maybe some wet snowflakes mixing in along its far northern fringes. By 4pm CDT, rains will still be falling in eastern SD, far southeastern ND and southern MN with less snow coverage further north and west.
Simulated radar from 4pm CDT today through 7am CDT Monday: Less in the way of snowflakes will mix in with the rains in eastern SD and southern MN late this afternoon and evening due to the warmer temperatures. Light rain showers will still hold onto southeastern ND before gradually coming to an end after 12am CDT tonight. Eastern SD will gradually work out the light rains overnight with just some patchy drizzle remaining into Sunday morning. Further east into southern MN, light rains will persist overnight. Heading into Sunday morning with colder temperatures once again, we’ll start to see some transition to snow as the system deepens and works northeast, clipping the far eastern portions of MN with areas of snow through the day Sunday. The Arrowhead of MN will continue to observe snow showers from this system even into Monday morning. Elsewhere, our attention turns back west where an additional disturbance lifting out of the Rockies into the western Dakotas will bring a mix of rain and snow showers late Sunday into Monday morning.
Here’s a look at our updated additional snowfall accumulations through Sunday: Confidence is quite low in west-central MN as we might not work in enough cold air to see much in the way of snow. Regardless, during the day Sunday, snows will pick back up from southern MN to the Arrowhead. We’ll see additional accumulations ranging from 1-2″ in central ND before the snows gradually taper off through the day with northern SD seeing some light slushy accumulations. Not depicted are the Black Hills where additional snowfall of 1-3″ is possible before all is set and done.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Monday: A general 0.25-0.5″ of liquid is expected across south-central ND into the eastern two-thirds of SD as this storm system progresses through these areas. This disturbance will strengthen Sunday and likely results in an uptick in precipitation across southern and especially southeastern MN where 0.5-1″ of liquid is likely. Locally higher amounts are possible. Locations across northeastern ND and northwestern MN will likely receive little in the way of liquid due to the disturbance progressing around the area. Some very light snow accumulations are possible, however.
Here’s a look at 7-day precipitation via the European Model: The greatest coverage for precipitation through this period will be across southern SD and especially southern MN where 0.5-1.5″ of liquid is likely. Precipitation will remain lighter further north and west but can still observe upwards of 0.5-0.75″ of liquid in some spots. While still early, there have been trends over the last 24 hours to bring additional accumulating snows to some place in the Great Plains. The focus currently is in the Central Plains but some accumulating snow across the far southern portions of the region Thursday into Friday morning can’t be ruled out. Definitely something to watch going forward.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: It will be quite the chilly day today across the Dakotas with many locations failing to reach 40ºF due to the precipitation hanging around the area. Overall, through the next four days high temperatures will generally range in the 30s and 40s while low temperatures will dip below freezing in many areas through the period. This is especially true Tuesday night as we push in another cold airmass behind a more potent system impacting areas south and east of the region.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will be particularly strong today across southwestern SD where wind gusts approaching 45mph will be common.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: A much colder airmass is looking to drop southward out of Canada into the region mid-next week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!