Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding the evolution of the disturbance working through the area through Sunday morning. The disturbance we have been tracking last night into this morning continues to slow work southeastward across the area with snows on the northern periphery in central/southern ND with light rain showers further south into eastern SD and the southern third of MN. Some of the rains have transitioned to snow across some northeastern counties of SD. The Black Hills continue to see some light snow with scattered weak rain showers just to the east. This disturbance will continue its journey slowly southeastward through the day with snow coverage winding down.
With the snows becoming light and/or coming to an end in some locations, the Winter Weather Advisories that were in effect across western ND have been allowed to expire. However, we still note Winter Weather Advisories ongoing across the Black Hills with additional light snow accumulations expected along with some possible blowing snow. Strong winds are accompanying this storm system, mainly in southwestern SD at this point where Wind Advisories are in effect. We’ll continue to observe wind gusts as high as 40mph at times through early afternoon before winds subside heading into the late afternoon hours.
Simulated radar through 9pm CST Sunday: We’ll find that the snows in ND gradually lose coverage through the afternoon hours with the only remaining batch of light snows hanging onto a small area just northeast of Eureka, SD. Precipitation in the form of rains will still be the most prevalent to the south and east of this location across eastern SD, far southeastern ND and southern MN into the evening and early overnight hours. There will still be chances given some low-level saturation that areas across the western Dakotas can still see a few weak rain/snow showers into this evening and early overnight. The light rain/snow activity across southeastern ND will gradually come to an end shortly after 12am CST tonight. Eastern SD will also work out the light rains overnight with just some patchy drizzle remaining into Sunday morning. Further east into southern MN, light rains will persist overnight with snowflakes mixing in at times. Heading into Sunday morning with colder temperatures once again, we’ll start to see some transition to snow as the system deepens and works northeast, clipping the far eastern portions of MN with areas of rain and snow through the day Sunday. A more substantial changeover to snow is likely in far eastern MN and especially the Arrowhead Sunday evening and night. Elsewhere, our attention will then turn back west where an additional disturbance lifting out of the Rockies into the western Dakotas will bring a mix of rain and snow showers late Sunday into Sunday night.
Here’s our updated snowfall graphic which runs through the day Sunday: Confidence is still low in central/west-central MN regarding accumulating snows as rains will likely more-or-less win out here. However, there is still a chance a few locations can briefly changeover to snow and result in a light slushy accumulation. Regardless, during day Sunday, snows will pick back up from southeastern MN to the Arrowhead. We’ll see additional light snow accumulations across central ND over the next several hours and northeastern SD through early night. An area of 1-2″ of snow is likely northeast of Eureka, SD. Also, with snows still ongoing across the Black Hills, an additional 1-2″ is possible.
Total precipitation through 9pm CST Sunday: Light precipitation amounts of 0.1-0.4″ are still expected across eastern SD as this storm system continues to progress through the area. A localized pocket of near 0.5″ of liquid is possible northeast of Eureka given the steady snow activity. This disturbance will strengthen Sunday and likely results in an uptick in precipitation across southern and especially southeastern MN where 0.25-0.75″ of liquid is likely. Locally higher amounts are possible. Between this system exiting the western Dakotas and the next entering, light precipitation amounts of around~0.1 are possible through this timeframe. Locations across northeastern ND and northwestern MN will likely receive little in the way of liquid due to the disturbance missing the area. Some very light snow showers are possible, however.
With some places receiving a lull in precipitation and a lack of winds heading into tonight, some areas of patchy fog may develop into Sunday morning, mainly across eastern ND and northeastern MN. The best threat for fog will be in low-lying areas. As the morning progresses, any areas of fog will gradually erode.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!