Good afternoon everyone! We are tracking a few distinct areas of light rain and snow showers across the area as of 3:50pm CDT. There are some lingering light rain showers slowly working eastward across southwestern MN and the eastern Dakotas while light snow showers can be found near the eastern ND/Canadian border. Our next disturbance is lifting into the western Dakotas with areas of rain and snow showers. Rain and snow coverage is expected to increase through the evening and overnight hours as we gradually work this system further into the region.
A band of snow is expected to set-up across the western portions of ND this evening into tonight, bringing decent snow accumulations before all is set and done. Snows are still expected across additional portions of the region, but given the frontogenesis and warm air advection aiding in the development of this band, we feel the best areas for snow will be in the circled region.
Given snowfall accumulations on the order of 2-5″ in western ND, Winter Weather Advisories have been hoisted in most of this area into the afternoon hours Saturday before gradually lifting to the east late Saturday and the snow coming to an end. The areas under these advisories line up with our thoughts on where this likely band develops. Winter Weather Advisories are also in effect in the Black Hills of SD.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Saturday: Light rain showers continue across southern MN and the eastern Dakotas while light snow showers continue along the eastern ND/Canadian border into this evening. Also this evening, precipitation coverage will increase in the western Dakotas with a brief period of rain anticipated in western ND before a transition to snow occurs due to dynamic cooling. Southeastern ND will also start off with light rain showers with a gradual transition to snow as well late tonight into Saturday morning. Rains are more likely further further south in SD but even the northern row of counties in the state likely will see a mix of rain and snow before a gradual transition to snow into the day Saturday. The Black Hills will also see rain changeover to snow tonight that will lead to decent snowfall accumulations. Precipitation will spread eastward through the nighttime hours with southwestern MN working in greater rain/snow coverage Saturday morning.
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Saturday through 1pm CDT Sunday: Snow coverage will gradually wane through the day Saturday across ND with light rains continuing in SD and especially southern MN. A transition to light snow showers is likely late Saturday across additional portions of SD (especially north and west). As the night progresses, areas of precipitation will push out of eastern SD while some areas in southern MN can work in enough cold air behind the storm system to changeover to snow before the precipitation in these areas come to and end west to east during the day Sunday. Our next attention turns to an additional disturbance lifting out of the Rockies that will bring additional chances for precipitation in the western Dakotas starting late Sunday.
As the storm system entering the western Dakotas progresses further into the region tonight into Saturday, strong winds on its western periphery are likely. This will likely aid in blowing some of the snow that falls around, but is likely going to stay just south of the main areas impacted by snow. Regardless, wind gusts of 30-40mph will be common in the western third of SD. At times these winds may gust upwards of 45mph. As the storm system progresses southeastward late Saturday, the winds will gradually fade in intensity.
Here’s a look at our updated snowfall forecast through the duration of this event. Confidence remains lower than normal in eastern ND into MN due to varying model solutions and mixing issues, but we do feel good that there will be a band of heavier snow previously discussed in western ND which will lead to 2-5″+ of snowfall accumulation this evening through early Saturday afternoon. We do need to watch southern MN as the NAMs are trending colder with a bit more snow Saturday night. Other model guidance isn’t as keen on this idea but something to watch regardless.
Total precipitation through 1pm CDT Sunday: A general 0.25-0.75″ of liquid is expected across a majority of the Dakotas (excluding northeastern ND) into southern MN. Localized pockets of near 1″ of liquid is possible where the heaviest rains fall in southern MN and/or snow banding in western ND. Locations across northern MN will stay just far enough northeast that little in the way of liquid is expected, but could see some very light snow accumulations.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!