Good evening everyone! We are tracking scattered showers and elevated storms along the Mississippi River with more isolated shower activity further northwest into central IA as of 5:45pm CDT. A weak pulse of showers are also gliding through northwestern NE and we expect this trend to continue with additional light rains swinging down from the Northern Plains into the area tonight. The rest of the area is dry at this time.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Saturday: Scattered shower/storm activity in the eastern portions of the area gradually fade this evening with only lingering spotty showers likely through the nighttime hours across IA. We’ll continue to work in additional areas of light rains across NE tonight and eventually the western and southern portions of IA into mid-morning Saturday. Lighter patches of showers along the southern periphery of this feature will clip northern KS and northern MO during this timeframe. Given increased dryness in the lower-levels across southern KS, most of the spotty showers it depicts Saturday morning won’t reach the ground, but we can’t rule out a few sprinkles. Enough cold air may funnel down into the NE Panhandle, allowing a few snowflakes to mix in before the precipitation ends.
Pending the amount of clearing that can take place tonight across the eastern portions of MO into central IA, patchy fog (depicted in the darker shadings) may develop late tonight that persists through the morning hours Saturday. The recent rains over the last couple of days has added to the low-level moisture and along with a lull in winds, could aid in the fog development. The best chances for fog at this time appear to be in south-central MO where there is greater model agreement. Any fog in the region will gradually erode as Saturday morning progresses.
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Saturday through 7pm CDT Sunday: Stratiform rains across NE and IA continue to progress eastward through the day Saturday, gradually exiting NE by the time 12am CDT Sunday rolls around. IA will continue to see these rains through the duration of Saturday night before the bulk of the activity lifts out of the state around 12pm CDT Sunday. As these rains work eastward, there is a chance the rain may mix in with snow across far northern IA before the precipitation ends. To the south, a wave of moderate rains likely initiates in close proximity to the surface low/cold front Saturday evening in far eastern KS into western MO, progressing eastward along the cold front across MO Saturday night into Sunday morning. A few embedded storms will likely develop within this feature, mainly in southern MO. This wave will be exiting to the east after 3pm CDT Sunday. The areas off to the west that gradually clear this system Saturday night will turn their eyes towards the next disturbance (begins to enter the Western Plains late Sunday) that will likely prove to be more potent (especially in MO) as it works across the region into Monday.
Rains will be widespread across northeastern NE into IA through this timespan with 0.5-1″ expected, locally higher amounts are possible (especially central IA). Locations across MO will end up with 0.25-0.75″ of rain with locally higher amounts between the isolated activity this evening and the greater coverage of rains Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Most of KS will likely end up on the drier side as the bulk of the rains remain off to the north and east.
Strong winds should be anticipated across the Western Plains tonight through Saturday as we watch this upcoming storm system dive into the region. Wind gusts upwards of 45-50mph can be expected in the High Plains of NE and KS before gradually fading as the system pushes eastward Saturday night. Upon its travel eastward, it will likely undergo strengthening that will result in strong winds across eastern IA and especially MO Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Here, winds will be gusting in the range of 35-45mph at times. Winds will die down west to east Sunday as this disturbance progresses into the OHV.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!