Good afternoon everyone! Most of the region remains dry as of 3:05pm EST, but there are a few areas to take note that are still observing some light snow showers/flurries. The first area is in southwestern SD where a weakening wave of energy continues to work through while the second area is in the northeastern portions of MN. A few isolated pockets in these areas can still pick up a quick light dusting of snow before the snows fade this evening due to high pressure bearing down from the north.
Our attention will then towards our next disturbance which is set to enter from Southern Canada late tonight into Tuesday. A warm front will surge into the area early Tuesday with enough warm air advection (area circled) to provide some life in an otherwise very cold airmass. This wave will bring a wave of snowfall especially in northeastern ND into northern MN where the cold air mass will lead to very high snow ratios (dry, fluffy snow). The rest of ND, southern MN and a large majority of SD will largely miss out on this system as it stays just to the north and east.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST Tuesday: Scattered, light snow showers in southwestern SD gradually weaken and fade as they slowly work southeastward through the evening hours while the light snows in northeastern MN gradually work eastward. We’ll watch the disturbance from southern Manitoba swing southeastward and push into northeastern ND ~3am CST and northwestern MN shortly thereafter. This disturbance will be a quick-hitter, so the round of light snows accompanying this system will work out of far eastern ND around 9am CST while it progresses through the remainder of northern MN through the morning and early afternoon hours. It won’t be until around 3pm CST when the majority of the snows have exited MN to the east. Virtually all areas will be dry after that time with only some isolated snowflakes still hanging around.
During the peak of this light snow event (6am CST Tuesday) temperatures will remain very cold with many across MN well into the single digits. A few isolated locations in the Arrowhead may even dip below 0ºF. With temperatures this low, the snows will be very dry and fluffy which will lead to high snow ratios as previously stated. So while the amount of liquid stored in the snowflakes will be very minimal, it will lead to some light accumulations.
Another feature to watch is the development of patchy fog across the western Dakotas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures in these parts will be warmer, but some locations will still remain at or below freezing, which could lead to freezing fog. Something to be mindful about when heading out Tuesday morning. The vast majority of this patchy fog will erode by the lunch hour.
Total snowfall through Tuesday: In general we are speaking light snow accumulations on the order of 0.5-1″ for many areas within the dark circled region. A corridor of 1″+ is likely within the blue circled region given this is the prime location for snows and the very high ratio equivalence. These light snows can easily accumulate so slick spots will be likely. Locations right outside the dark circled region in northeastern ND and central MN will see very light accumulations less than 0.5″. Accumulating snows are not expected elsewhere, besides the already aforementioned southwestern SD.
A very weak piece of energy will push into northeastern ND and northern MN Tuesday night into Wednesday morning that could bring a very light round of scattered snow showers. Since this morning’s data, this system has trended weaker, but something to watch regardless as it could drop a quick dusting of snow over isolated locations.
We’ll introduce another round of patchy fog to low-lying areas Wednesday morning stretching from western ND through southeastern SD. As is the case with Tuesday morning, temperatures will remain largely at or below freezing, which could lead to freezing fog. Any areas of fog Wednesday morning will gradually erode through the morning hours.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!