Good evening everyone! A weak shortwave trough is continuing to progress southeastward bringing light snows across southeastern ND, northeastern SD and northern MN as of 4:40pm CST. Over the course of the evening/night, we’ll watch these snows work into additional portions of MN before gradually exiting late tonight.
The Wind Advisories that were in effect across portions of the western Dakotas today have since expired, but we still continue to expect gusty winds on the order of 40-45mph through the evening hours. Progressing into the early overnight hours, these winds will die down and lift to the east along with the shortwave trough currently impacting the region.
Simulated radar through 3am EST Friday: A narrow band of light to moderate snows will continue to work southeastward across the remainder of southeastern ND and northeastern SD, bringing light to moderate snows to portions of central and southern MN through the evening and early overnight hours. Enough warm air on the southern periphery of this system will allow for a mixed back of precipitation (southern MN) with some light rains and evening light freezing drizzle mixing in with the snows. This system will lift to the east out of MN by 3am EST Friday. A few spotty rain/snow showers are also possible in western ND.
Additional snowfall accumulations will be generally light, with many receiving less than 1″ of snow in southeastern ND/far northeastern SD into MN. A heavier dose of snow just south of International Falls will drop an additional 0.5-1.5″+ of snow before all is set and done tonight.
Our eyes will then turn to a more impactful clipper system that will swing through the region starting early tomorrow morning. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued out ahead of this disturbance from northwestern to southeastern ND with a few advisories also in effect across portions of northeastern SD. Generally, these advisories run through Friday afternoon.
This next system begins to work into northwestern ND tonight as a mix of snow/sleet and rain before precipitation changes over to all snow as we work into late Friday morning. The rest of ND will be impacted by these snows as Friday progresses with northern and eastern SD receiving the bulk of these snows as we head into Friday evening/night. Lighter snows showers are possible in western SD. After 1pm EST Friday, snows will lift into southwestern MN, traversing the rest of southern MN Friday evening and night before the vast majority of the snows exit southern MN early Saturday morning. Back further west, light snow showers will remain possible in southern/southwestern SD Friday night into Saturday morning.
Right now, given where favorable frontal forcing is going to setup, here’s an updated graphic depicting snowfall amounts following the current disturbance Friday and Friday night. A moderate to heavy band of snow will likely set up stretching from northwestern ND through Bismarck to southeastern ND/northeastern SD. Models have trended slightly further south and stronger when compared to this morning’s run, hence these upgrades. This corridor of moderate to heavy snow can produce snowfall totals of 5-7″+ before all is set and done with a band of 1-3″ extending into southern MN. Definitely be mindful of the weather during the course of Friday and Friday night as travel will be tricky due to slick roadways.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!