Good afternoon everyone! Over the course of the morning, we have gradually started to work in the disturbance from the Rockies, impacting portions of western KS with light snows as of 12pm CST. This is the beginning of the event, and we anticipate additional snows to work across KS into the evening hours. Off to the east across portions of central/southeastern KS into the southern half of MO, current radar suggests light rains are falling. This is true in the mid-levels as saturation can be noted. However, there is plenty of dry air in the low-levels helping to keep locations at the surface dry (though recent observations depict light rains in central KS).
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the incoming winter storm with most of these areas expected to receive a few inches of snow before all is set and done. Cities under the Winter Weather Advisories include Garden City, Wichita, Salina and Topeka. Please note the timing for when the advisories are expected to cancel below (ranges from 7am EST Monday west to 1pm EST Monday east). Winds will also be a problem during this event, with gusts upwards of 30-35mph expected. This will allow for blowing snow as well as reduced visibilities at times. Due to these circumstances, travel will likely be difficult with the slick roads anticipated.
We continue to eye the best coverage of snow to be centered over KS into this evening due to better dynamics and forcing with this system. An area of modest frontogenesis is present in the state, which signifies the development of a boundary aiding in lift. This promotes the creation of clouds and snow crystals, allowing for snows to fall from the clouds and reach the surface. Another factor promoting snows in KS is warm air advection as it enhances lift.
Simulated radar through 3am CST tonight: Light snows continue to gain coverage across the western two-thirds of KS through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Light rain showers are likely along the eastern periphery of the snows in eastern KS. NE will remain virtually clear from this system as it likely stays just south of the NE/KS border. However, we can’t rule out some light snows clipping the southern two rows of counties into this evening. Further north, it will remain drier until we work in a weak pulse of energy from western SD that brings scattered snow showers to northwestern NE this evening into tonight. As we advance through the nighttime hours, the snows will gradually lose coverage and intensity as the activity progresses through the eastern third of KS into northern MO. Areas of light rain showers will be possible in southern MO. While not depicted, additional light scattered snow showers will push into northern NE tonight into Monday morning. A very light coating of snow is possible in these areas. The vast majority of this convection will fade by Monday morning as it works through eastern MO, but will be replaced with another batch of snows that develop across the TX Panhandle, northwestern OK and southern KS.
Simulated radar from 3am CST Monday through 3am CST Tuesday: The new development of snows across southern KS will work eastward through the morning hours Monday, progressing into the southern two-thirds of MO. KS will clear this activity shortly after 3pm CST Monday. The snows will gradually pull east during the day Monday, with a bulk of the precipitation exiting eastern MO by 3am CST Tuesday. Rain showers on the southern periphery of these snows are likely, mainly in southeastern MO during the day Monday.
Shown below is an updated snowfall graphic from this morning, running through Monday night. A general swath of 1-3″ of snow will run across the states of KS and MO (excluding far northern MO and the Bootheel). Models are in agreement that a corridor running through portions of southern KS will receive higher amounts on the order of 2-5″. We have introduced an area in southwestern MO that should expect a general 2-4″ of snow before all is set and done. Localized pockets of 5-6″+ of snow is possible in southern KS. There is some disagreement regarding the evolution of the snows in MO, with one high-resolution model (HRRR) depicting lesser amounts than what is shown. This is not out of the question, but less likely. Temperatures will be marginal with the first batch of snow across KS today, with many staying at or just above freezing. This will allow for a slower accumulation process, but still allow for slick roadways to develop. Definitely be mindful of the weather if traveling through Monday night across KS and MO. As discussed previously, a very light coating of snow is possible in isolated areas of NE tonight into Monday morning.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!