Good afternoon everyone! Areas of showers are currently working across portions of the Dakotas into MN with snow showers mixing in across the higher elevations in western SD and far southwestern ND. A distinct swath of heavy rains are lifting out of far eastern ND into northwestern MN as of 4:20pm CDT. This feature along with the shower activity in the region will continue to lift northeastward. Snow activity will gradually build in far western SD with rain showers persisting in the central and eastern areas.
Here’s a look at the updated weather hazards: Additional Flood Watches have been added near Lake Superior in MN with Flood Watches continuing to remain effect further south in east-central/southern MN. Winter Weather Advisories in far western SD continue through 7am CDT tomorrow morning as 1-3″ of wet snow is likely.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Tuesday: Areas of showers will persist across much of the area (excluding northwestern ND) through the night while snow showers will gain coverage in far western SD and eventually southwestern ND. A few embedded, elevated storms are possible within the convection in southeastern MN tonight with spotty hail the main threat with these storms. During the morning hours, the rains in the area will lose coverage and intensity, but given the saturated lower levels of the atmosphere, areas of light showers and drizzle are expected in the eastern two-thirds of SD, MN and eastern ND. Snow showers in the western Dakotas will begin to fade.
Another round of wintry weather is expected Tuesday night into the day Wednesday as rains transition to snow from southwest to northeast. We’ll finally see the frontal boundary bringing rains/snow to the area finally push out, but not before ushering in additional cold air that will allow for the next bout of snow to happen. These snows will wrap-around the storm system that’s moving through the southeastern portions of the region, resulting in likely snow accumulations across northwestern MN, the southeastern half of ND into portions of SD. Models have trended slightly cooler and hence slightly more snowy in parts of SD. Deviations in amounts and track are likely so be sure to check back tomorrow and Wednesday for additional updates!
Simulated radar from 10am CDT Tuesday through 1am CDT Thursday: Our next wave of showers and snow lifts northward out of the Central Plains into SD/southern MN late Tuesday morning/early afternoon and eventually impacting southern/eastern ND and the rest of MN late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Widespread rains will be spread out across the eastern Dakotas and MN while snows occur in western SD and south-central ND. Rains in central SD, eastern ND and northwestern MN will gradually transition to snow as cooler air infiltrates further south Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the setup and dynamics, pockets of freezing rain may develop between the rains and snows in portions of northern MN Wednesday that will need to be monitored as well. Further south, storms are possible in southern MN Tuesday night and Wednesday, a few of which may be strong with hail and damaging winds (mainly in far southeastern MN). All of this activity will begin to lift out of the area with most rains and snow exiting as Wednesday night progresses.
Precipitation guidance through 1am CDT Thursday: Widespread 1-3″ of rain likely across the southern two-thirds of MN; The eastern half of SD, southeastern ND and northern MN has a risk for 1-2″ of liquid. Precipitation amounts drop off further north and west.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!