Afternoon Video:
Good afternoon everyone! A large expanse of heavy rains continues to inundate central KS and now south-central NE as of 12:45pm CDT while shower and storm coverage has decreased substantially across northern MO into IA, though rains are still falling in some of these areas. Lighter rain showers are also progressing through northern and western NE with even snow showers mixing in with the rain across the NE panhandle. The heavy rains in central KS will continue north and eastward through the remainder of the day into tonight, bring heavy rains to similar locations.
Simulated radar through 4am CDT Tuesday: Heavy showers and storms across central KS continue northeastward, bringing additional heavy convection to eastern NE, western IA, far northwestern MO and eventually northeastern KS as we progress through the remainder of the day into tonight. On the eastern periphery of this feature (eastern KS, northwestern MO, far southeastern NE and central IA), storm development is likely that could result in a few of these storms becoming strong to severe with damaging winds the main concern. We can’t rule out a few cases of isolated hail and/or a couple isolated tornadoes. Isolated pop-up showers and storms are possible further southeast across MO but will remain limited in coverage. Elsewhere, light snow shower activity will continue in the NE panhandle.
We are watching for the threat of strong to severe storms along the eastern periphery of the rains where greater instability and wind energy lies across eastern KS into MO and IA Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours. The cold front will begin to start pushing east into these areas with the storms developing in this region capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Flooding will continue to be a large concern during this time.
Simulated radar from 4am CDT Tuesday through 7pm CDT Wednesday: Additional doses of heavy shower and storm activity continues to lift northward out of the Southern Plains into KS and NE Tuesday with strong to severe storm development likely during the afternoon/evening hours into Tuesday night on the eastern flanks of this activity in IA, MO and far eastern KS. By this point, the rains will be finally starting to progress eastward as a cold front pushes through the region. Some back-side light rains transitioning to snow showers are likely Tuesday afternoon and night across far western KS into western/north-central NE. Light slushy accumulations of 0.5-1.5″ are likely. Most shower and storm activity will exit to the east by Wednesday evening, leaving a vast majority of the region finally trending drier.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through 7pm CDT Wednesday: A widespread swath of 2-5″ of rain is expected in the heart of the area (Flash Flood Watches in effect), with localized pockets of 6″+ especially over central/northeastern KS. Areas of flooding will be likely with these heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1″+ are likely further northwest in western KS and central NE while southeastern MO will stay far enough east of the stalled front in the region to avoid heavy amounts.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!