Good morning everyone! Some light rain/snow showers are currently working along the western ND/SD border as of 9:40am CDT. The Black Hills are also observing snowfall this morning. Precipitation in these areas will become more widespread today with areas further east working in convection as well.
Here’s a look at what to expect regarding snowfall over the western Dakotas through Tuesday morning. Precipitation will likely start off as rain in the areas currently not observing snow before a transition to snow occurs as a result of dynamic cooling. Another disturbance will lift in late Monday into Tuesday, adding to any snowfall that occurs today into Monday morning. Depending on how long it takes for the transition to snow to occur, snow may have a difficult time sticking to the roads, but definitely expect some slick roads at least. Higher elevations have a better chance of observing 2-5″ of snow like what is shown below.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Monday: Our disturbance lifts further into the Dakotas as the day progresses with MN working in areas of rain mainly after 4pm CDT today. Rain activity will become more widespread in the Dakotas with a gradual transition to snow expected to occur across the western portions through the day. Areas of rain will continue overnight across the eastern Dakotas into MN while snow showers will persist in the western Dakotas. Some storm activity is possible in southeastern SD into the southern third of MN this evening into tonight.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Our next wave of convection arrives Monday with heavy showers and perhaps a few storms impacting eastern SD into MN. These rains will likely be heavy at times leading to a slight risk for flooding, especially in southeastern SD into southern MN. To the west, rains will be more scattered in nature while an additional snow opportunity in the western Dakotas presents itself Monday night. This wave will work northeastward through this timeframe with showers and storms continuing across eastern SD into MN Monday night and Tuesday morning. Some snows will likely linger across central/western ND Tuesday morning.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Tuesday: The precipitation over the western Dakotas takes into account any rain that falls and melted snow. Heavy shower and storm activity further east in eastern SD into MN will drop a general 1-2″ of rain with locally higher amounts, especially in far southern MN. Localized flooding is possible due to multiple disturbances working through.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: Multiple disturbances will ride along and north of a temperature gradient situated over the Central Plains, which will impact the Northern Plains through the period. Precipitation amounts that include rain and melted snow will total 1-3″ for MN and the far eastern Dakotas. Localized precipitation amounts of 3″+ are possible, especially in southern MN where the heaviest rains will be located. A potential snowmaker is in the cards for portions of the area mid-week as another strong disturbance pushes through the region. The details regarding these possible snows will be ironed out as the event nears due to inconsistencies.
High temperatures over the next four days: Highs will struggle to make it out of the 30s today across portions of ND. Locations just to the southeast of the boundary in far southeastern MN Monday will warm considerably.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Even cooler overnight lows will be likely Tuesday night and especially Wednesday night with the passage of the cold front.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days:
Wind guidance over the next four days:
High/low temperature charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!