Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding storm evolution through tomorrow morning. For additional details after this time into Monday night, please refer to this morning’s update! Heavy shower and storm coverage has increased across a large portion of the region this morning, including portions of KS, eastern NE, northern/western MO and into far southern IA. Expect these rains to head northeastward through the day along a sharp temperature gradient with additional heavy showers and storms pushing in from the Southern Plains.
There is a threat for severe weather today, mainly in southeastern KS into MO where an ample moisture stream along with decent wind shear and low-level lift could lead to a few rotating storms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes. Many models highlight a possible bowing segment working through the marginal risk area (especially in MO) later this afternoon into early night. As discussed in the morning update, these rains will be heavy today, increasing the flooding risk across KS, southeastern NE, MO and IA. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect across central KS into portions of southeastern NE.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Sunday: Please try not to focus on the exact location of where the model depicts these storms as subtle differences to reality are likely as models will have a tough time pinpointing these rains. Either way…numerous areas of heavy showers and storms will progress through a large sum of the region through tonight, especially KS, the eastern half of NE, northern MO, and portions of IA. Enough destabilization in southeastern KS into MO will lead to additional scattered strong storm development that works through portions of central/northern MO this afternoon and evening. During the nighttime hours, heavy showers and storms are likely to persist/develop in western/central KS and lift into a majority of NE late tonight into tomorrow morning. IA will also see additional heavy convection lift back in late tonight/tomorrow morning after rains during the day. The state of MO will clear out the heaviest precipitation late tonight into Monday morning, but isolated storm chances will remain.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Tuesday: Heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3″ will likely occur across central KS and southeastern NE. Localized 3-4″+ will be likely where the heaviest storms develop, track and persist, especially in central KS. Pockets of 1-2″ of rain is also likely with the storms into tonight in northern MO and portions of IA. With only isolated storm chances in southeastern MO, many will miss out on the rains. Rains will remain on the lighter side in western NE.
