Afternoon Video:
Good afternoon everyone! Scattered showers and storms are working through southwestern IA, northern MO and northeastern KS as of 12:30pm CDT. A general progression towards the northeast is expected through the afternoon hours with more widespread showers and storms expected this evening into tonight.
A boundary set up across the region will spark new development late this afternoon and evening in the form of a strong complex from southwestern KS through eastern IA. Ample moisture along with decent instability and a strong low-level jet will provide an environment conducive for strong/severe storms with large hail and damaging winds, especially in central KS. A few isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially during the early phases of the event. Heavy rainfall is likely as this boundary barely moves tonight into tomorrow morning (depicted in the second image below where a slight to moderate risk of flooding is shown).
Simulated radar through 4am CDT Saturday: Areas of showers and storms across the area currently migrate eastward with some additional convection possibly sparking in IA before the main feature (the heavy, strong complex of storms) fires after 7pm CDT this evening from eastern IA southwestward to central KS. The heavy rain risk will be quite high with this complex as it slowly moves overnight. Elsewhere, shower activity will progress across western NE through the nighttime hours.
Simulated radar from 4am CDT Saturday through 7am CDT Sunday: The low-level jet weakens slightly during the day Saturday so this organized storm activity will lose some organization and coverage, but areas of showers and storms will remain, especially in the southern portions of the region. A gradual uptick in storm development is expected once again late in the day Saturday into the night across eastern KS, MO and southern IA as a boundary remains. This boundary will lift northward Sunday, so these areas of showers and storms will push northward as well. A few strong storms are possible during this timeframe.
Total rainfall through 7pm CDT Saturday: A general base of 0.5-1.5″ is expected across southern/eastern IA, western/northern MO, far southeastern NE and the eastern two-thirds of KS. The storms in the region will train so localized pockets 2-5″ can’t be ruled out, especially in southern/eastern IA, eastern KS and western MO. Flash flooding is likely in the areas that see consistent heavy rains.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!