Today’s Video:
Good morning everyone! Areas of showers are currently working through ND and northern MN as of 9:45am CDT. Rains have begun to transition to snow as well across far northwestern ND. Smaller batches of showers and storms are also clipping the far southern portions of MN. Expect these areas of convection to continue to lift ENE throughout the day with a continued transition from rain to snow to happen west to east across the northern tier of ND and eventually the far northern tip of MN this evening.
Simulated radar through 1am CDT tonight: Wrap-around rains around our low pressure system will lift through ND and northern MN today with scattered showers and storms set to impact southern/southeastern MN, especially this afternoon and evening. Some of the storms in southeastern MN this afternoon and evening have the potential to become strong with isolated damaging winds and hail the main threats given the wind energy. An isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out. The wrap-around rains in northern ND will transition to snow and exit as the day progresses due to the cold front pulling in colder air from Canada. Rains will transition to snow across the far northwestern tip of MN this evening with most showers/storms/snow exiting the entire region by 12am CDT tonight.
Here’s a look at total precipitation (accounting for rain and melted snow) through tonight: A quick 0.5-1″ of rain is possible where it storms in southeastern MN today with 0.25-0.5″+ of precipitation expected over portions of ND into northern MN.
Accumulating snowfall through tonight will remain confined to the very far northern portions of ND where 1-2″ with locally 3″ of wet snow is likely, especially on grassy surfaces. If traveling definitely proceed with caution as some roadways will likely be slick.
A brief period of higher pressure will lead to calmer weather overnight Wednesday. This will be very short-lived as moisture from the remnants of Rosa and disturbances riding along the eastern periphery of an upper-level low west of the region will bring additional rains to SD Thursday morning. This will gradually spread northeastward through the day Thursday into Friday. Areas of snow are likely across ND and northern MN Thursday afternoon/night with cooler air in the region.
Simulated radar from 5am CDT Thursday through 1pm CDT Friday: The brief lull Wednesday night will be replaced with rains from the remnants of Rosa first across SD Thursday morning and eventually the other portions of the area through the day into Thursday night. Enough cold air will remain in play across ND and northern MN that a transition to snow is likely Thursday afternoon and continuing through the nighttime hours. Some frozen precipitation will likely mix in across northern SD. Another weak area of rain and snow showers will affect portions of the Dakotas Friday. A few inches of wet snow is possible through the duration of the event Thursday/Thursday night across portions of ND into northern MN.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through the next 7 days: A sharp temperature gradient across the Central Plains will allow for numerous disturbances to ride along the gradient and impact the Northern Plains. The highest rain totals will be located over southern/eastern MN where 1-3″ is likely. Elsewhere, decent rains through the period are expected with a general 0.5-1.5″ of precipitation (including rain and melted snow). While the precipitation amounts (shown below) over the Dakotas are likely overdone, we can’t rule out this possibility given model-to-model consistency.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: A wide temperature margin will be noted today across the Northern Plains with 70s likely in the southern areas and 30s/40s further north in northern ND. After the passage of a cold front, the entire region will observe highs in the 40s with some 50s Thursday. Lows tonight will drop down into the 20s over numerous locations of the region so the areas that haven’t seen a freeze yet this season likely will observe one.
Freeze Watches have been issued by the National Weather Service regarding the low overnight temperatures tonight. Currently, the Freeze Watch is only out for a majority of SD but this will likely expand and turn into Freeze Warnings heading through the day. Wind Advisories are also in effect for southern ND into SD for strong winds today which is discussed further below.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: A surge in moisture is occurring ahead of the cold front over the eastern areas today before another shot of cooler, drier Canadian air infiltrates the region tomorrow.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: A strong cold front will blast through the region today and with it strong winds expected. As discussed above, Wind Advisories are in effect for these strong winds with gusts up to 45-50mph.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!