IA/MO/KS Video:
NE Video:
Good morning everyone! The only rains impacting the region currently (as of 8:55am CDT) are located over northern IA. These showers and storms will lift ENE through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon. We’ll be watching for a broken line of storms to develop along a cold front this afternoon and evening across the eastern portions of the area while another disturbance will lift into western NE late tonight into tomorrow morning.
We are watching for the risk of strong storms this afternoon and evening associated with the broken line of storms expected to develop from eastern IA stretching southwestward into northern MO and eastern KS. There will be plenty of wind energy aloft which will allow the gusts from thunderstorms to easily reach the surface, leading to a damaging wind risk. Isolated hail/tornadoes are possible, mainly in eastern IA where there are better dynamics.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Thursday: Most of the daytime hours today will be dry with the exception being the patch of showers and storms working through northern IA currently. The main chances for showers and storms will hold off until after 6pm CDT this evening with discrete cells developing into a broken complex of storms from eastern IA/northern MO into KS. After quickly congealing into the broken line, this complex will dive southward during the overnight hours across northern/central MO and the southern two-thirds of KS. This line will gradually weaken during the late overnight hours but numerous shower and storm activity will likely persist across portions of KS and central/southern MO late tonight into Thursday morning while additional energy will increase shower and storm coverage across western NE during this same timespan.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Thursday through 1pm CDT Friday: The remnants from tonight’s activity will slowly fade across eastern KS into MO tomorrow morning with isolated storm chances remaining in these areas through the day Friday. The disturbance across western NE will work northeastward Thursday morning with additional development likely along its southern periphery to continue areas of showers and storms across NE during the remainder of the day. This activity will work eastward and bring areas of showers and storms to IA Thursday evening/night. Some of the storms associated with this disturbance will clip northern KS/MO. With the boundary becoming stationary across the region Thursday night into Friday, areas of showers and storms will remain, especially in southern IA, northern MO, southeastern NE and eastern KS.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Friday: Pockets of 1-2″+ is likely across the southeastern half of IA, northern MO and into KS with the storms set to impact these areas. Locally higher amounts are possible with the heaviest storms. While likely underdone in spots in western/northern NE, a general 0.25-0.5″ of rain is expected.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: A large expanse of heavy rain is expected to setup near a sharp temperature gradient across the region with multiple disturbances working through. Widespread rains of 3-6″+ is likely in IA, northwestern MO, southeastern NE and KS. Later through the day Friday and Saturday, a front will lift into the area and persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, providing multiple opportunities for heavy/flooding rains.
High temperatures over the next four days: The Central Plains will remain in the warm sector of a front draped to the north of the area today, leading to widespread temperatures in the 80s and perhaps lower 90s. High temperatures will crash Thursday behind a cold front with observing highs ranging from the 40s in the northwest to 60s and lower 70s southeast. Temperatures may linger into the 80s across far southern MO.
Low temperatures over the next four days: A cold front progressing through the region later today into tonight will drop temperatures over the northern half of the region heading into Thursday morning. Frost risks are possible Thursday morning with lows in the 30s across NE and IA.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days: Humidity levels will be substantially (lower/higher) (north/south) of the boundary that will fluctuate in position across the region through Saturday.
Wind guidance over the next four days: A windy day is on tap across the Central Plains today with gusts approaching 40mph, especially in NE and IA.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Notice there will be large temperature fluctuations over the next 7 days.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!