Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding rain chances across the area through Tuesday morning. A weak wave of showers that progressed through southern SD this morning is now currently in southeastern MN as of 3:45pm CDT. This wave will continue to provide very light rain chances to locations mainly southeast of Minneapolis through the next couple of hours. Our main wave is building and progressing through western/northern ND and this will be the feature that provides better rain chances to locations further east tonight.
Here’s the setup going into tonight: The disturbance currently seen on radar in western/northern ND will quickly work eastward through the nighttime hours with most of the activity (shown below) exiting ND around 1am CDT. To the south, additional energy will develop along the cold front that will provide light rain chances, but ample dry air near the surface will allow for a large portion of the raindrops to evaporate before reaching the ground. Even due to these circumstances, we expect areas of light showers to develop and push through SD and southern MN tonight. A copious amount of energy can be noted to the northwest of this area, but even drier air funneling in behind the cold front won’t allow for any precipitation to continue.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Tuesday: A wave of moderate showers works eastward across the rest of ND through the late evening hours, gradually exiting and impacting northern MN into the overnight hours. Most activity will be exiting eastern ND around 1am CDT. To the south of this area in SD, light shower activity will lift in from southern MT/eastern WY and along with energy developing along the cold front, provide chances for showers across the state. However, as discussed before, this likely won’t be as heavy as in ND due to the presence of dry air at the surface. It’s also important to note that this model is the most vigorous with the SD activity and other high-resolution model data are less keen on this solution. We did want to highlight the possibility regardless. During the late night/early morning hours Tuesday, areas of showers will be working through MN with the bulk of the activity exiting the state around 10am CDT. Very light showers will persist in far southeastern SD and the southern third of MN even after this time.
There is a chance for some patchy dense fog where we can get some quick clearing late tonight into Tuesday morning. The areas with the best chances appear to be northeastern SD, far eastern ND and western MN (depicted by the darker shadings). This fog should gradually erode through the late morning hours.
During the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday, most of the region will be dry with the exception being areas within the highlight region below where some lingering very light showers will hang on. Again, dry air will be a problem in these areas so most of the precipitation that falls from the clouds likely won’t reach the ground. To the north, partial clearing is anticipated with many seeing sun return. However, another upper-level low will target far northern locations that can observe some light rain/snow showers, mainly during the evening hours.
Total rainfall through 1am CDT Wednesday: Precipitation amounts ranging from 0.1-0.4″ are likely across ND into northern MN while drier air in the lower-levels further south (SD and southern MN) will hinder precipitation amounts. Patches of liquid around 0.1″ are possible where rains manage to reach the surface. Please note that rainfall amounts are likely underdone in southwestern ND based on current radar. There is a chance for some snow to mix in across far northern MN and far northeastern ND, but snowfall accumulations are not expected.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!