Good morning everyone! The weak piece of energy that impacted MN yesterday into last night remains in far eastern MN this morning. We’ll continue to trend MN drier through the day as these showers work out of the state while our attention turns towards the ND where a more potent upper-level low is beginning to swing through.
During the course of the day, shower activity will work into portions of ND with areas of light showers/drizzle likely further south into SD. The energy funneling into the Dakotas will be enough to provide the shower activity, but with ample dry air starting off in the low-levels, it will be difficult at first to get any of this precipitation to reach the surface. With time, the lowest levels of the atmosphere will saturate and the precipitation that will be depicted by radar will reach the ground. Progressing into tonight (graphic below), the upper-level low will have quickly worked ESE, with a majority of the precipitation that affected the Dakotas today pushed eastward into the far eastern portions of ND into MN. This activity will gradually clear the area Sunday morning with the exception being eastern MN where some lingering light showers/drizzle will persist. Strong winds are expected to accompany this disturbance; More on the wind potential in the 4-panels.
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Sunday: Areas of light showers gradually work out of eastern MN into the early afternoon hours while the next disturbance from the Rockies works into the northwestern portions of the region. This disturbance will quickly swing through the Dakotas (especially ND and northern SD) through the day while MN begins to be impacted by the rains around 2pm CDT. Note this is a faster progression than originally anticipated. During the nighttime hours, areas of rain will lift through far eastern ND into MN. It is not out of the question that a few rumbles of thunder accompany the swath of rains that works through the region. After 12am CDT, the heaviest rains will be in MN before most of this activity clears the state around 10am CDT Sunday. A few patches of drizzle will hang on in northeastern MN Sunday afternoon. The vast majority of the region will clear out by this time, but another disturbance looms from the west.
Skies will clear out behind this next wave across the region Sunday with most observing a mix of clouds and sun. However, this will be short-lived as upper-level clouds from our next disturbance works into the Dakotas Sunday afternoon and evening. This next disturbance will follow behind the potent storm system Sunday night, impacting mainly ND during this time. Progressing through the day Monday, areas of showers will work eastward into northern MN and likely clip northern SD in the process.
Simulated radar from 1pm CDT Sunday through 1pm CDT Monday: The region will remain virtually dry through about 12am CDT Monday when the rains from our next storm system work into northwestern ND. Areas of showers will lift through the state through the night while gradually working into MN Monday morning. As stated previously, a few light showers may clip the northern portions of ND given the energy available. At this time, we do not expect this wave to be as strong as the one impacting the region starting today.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Sunday: A swath of rains generally ranging from 0.25-0.5″ is expected from northern ND through central/southeastern MN. Most of these rains will come through Sunday morning with lighter rain amounts added on top of what is shown Sunday night into Monday morning. SD has the potential to remain largely dry through this timespan, though some very light rains are possible as previously discussed.
Here’s a look at total precipitation through the next 7 days via the European Model: The best chances for rains remain in ND into northern MN where 0.25-1″ of liquid is expected (higher-end amounts more likely in northeastern MN). Precipitation will remain quite light in SD and southwestern MN through this timespan.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will remain quite chilly in the 40s across a majority of MN today as low-level moisture and cloud cover will remain. We’ll get some storm-induced warmth out ahead of the wave of rain in southern ND into SD where 60s will be common. Overnight lows will generally stay at 32ºF or above across the region tonight with a few pockets dipping into the upper 20s in portions of the Dakotas.
We are expecting to see some strong wind gusts accompanying the upper-level low working through the area west today and east tonight/Sunday with wind gusts upwards of 40mph+ at times. Strong winds will gradually work into the western Dakotas early this afternoon, progressing eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas during the evening and overnight hours. Winds will pick up in western MN tonight with persistent, strong NW wind across southern MN through the day Sunday. The winds will die down Sunday evening as the story system clears the area. The second image below shows the progression of the winds across the area this afternoon through Sunday.
A couple advisories to note across the area this morning: Dense Fog Advisories in western MN/far eastern ND and Wind Advisories for the strong winds in the western Dakotas. The fog present in the region currently will gradually erode through the morning hours with most fog dissipated by 12pm CDT.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: Cooler trends are likely after the pre-Halloween storm system in the Northern US.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!