Good afternoon everyone! This will be a brief update regarding rain chances and strong winds through Sunday. Most light shower/drizzle activity has exited eastern MN with a majority of the state dry at this moment while our forecasted upper-level low has begun its impacts in the Dakotas. A pocket of moderate rain is currently lifting through northern ND while lighter showers are impacting southern ND and northwestern SD.
During the course of the day, areas of moderate showers will continue to work across ND, especially the northern/eastern portions, while lighter showers will be more frequent in southern ND into SD. As discussed in this morning’s update, there is some dry air keeping some of the precipitation from reaching the surface. However, with time, the drier layers of the atmosphere will saturate and the precipitation that is depicted by radar will reach the ground. Progressing into tonight (graphic below), the upper-level low will have quickly worked ESE, with a majority of the rain working through the Dakotas now being pushed eastward into far eastern ND into MN. This activity will gradually clear the area Sunday morning with the exception being eastern MN (especially the Arrowhead and along the Mississippi River) where some lingering drizzle is possible. Strong winds are expected to accompany this disturbance; Additional details later!
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Sunday: Areas of light to moderate showers will quickly swing through the Dakotas through the duration of the day with rain impacts reaching MN’s western border by 2pm CDT. During the nighttime hours, areas of rain will lift through far eastern ND into MN. It is not out of the question that a few rumbles of thunder/embedded storms accompany the swath of rains that works through the region. After 12am CDT, the bulk of the rains will be in MN before most activity clears the state by 10am CDT Sunday. A few patches of drizzle will linger in the Arrowhead Sunday afternoon. The vast majority of the region will clear out by this time with many observing a mix of sun and clouds, but another disturbance looms from the west (discussed in this morning’s update).
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Sunday: A swath of rains generally ranging from 0.25-0.5″ is expected from northeastern ND through eastern MN. Localized pockets of 0.75″ to as much as 1″ are possible given the cluster of moderate rains working through northern ND currently. Portions of SD have trended wetter since this morning’s update, with a sliver of rain up to 0.25″ possible traversing the state. Otherwise, other areas not discussed will receive little measurable precipitation.
Strong winds will be on the rise across the Dakotas through tonight with the upper-level low working through the area. Locations off to the east will see an increase in strong winds starting tonight and lasting through a majority of the day Sunday. Wind gusts upwards of 40-50mph at times are expected, especially in the eastern Dakotas and southern MN. Winds will gradually die down west to east across the Dakotas late tonight/early Sunday and MN Sunday afternoon/evening. The second image below shows the areas currently under a Wind Advisory and their expected cancellation time (in EDT). We would not be surprised if additional advisories were to be issued further south and east across the other portions of eastern SD and southern MN with time. Regardless of whether or not an advisory is in effect for your location, expect strong winds.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!