Good afternoon everyone! A few weak pieces of energy still remain in MN from this morning’s activity and the showers that have slid southeastward out of eastern ND. These showers will continue in the ESE direction into tonight, gradually exiting the eastern portions of MN Saturday morning. There are some very weak showers progressing through eastern SD, but based on surface observations these are not reaching the ground (too much dry air in the low levels).
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Saturday: We continue to note the wave of showers working through MN into tonight with lingering pockets of drizzle possible just to the west of the main shower activity. Another weak pulse will enter western ND tonight that could bring a few brief showers to these areas along with northern SD before diminishing Saturday morning. By 7am CDT Saturday, we’ll still have some ongoing light shower activity/drizzle in eastern MN while our focus will begin to shift towards the next disturbance set to work into the northwestern portions of the region late Saturday morning.
Pockets of fog were noted this morning in eastern ND into portions of western MN. Saturday morning will feature the same risks, but with a greater focus in the western two-thirds of MN. The precipitation this evening will be working eastward with time tonight, with some drier weather and a gradual clearing expected in western MN. With all the low-level moisture still hanging around, some fog development is anticipated that will likely last through a majority of the morning before gradually eroding by early afternoon.
Our focus late Saturday morning turns to western ND and northwestern SD where the beginnings of our next upper-level low will infiltrate first. The energy within the circled region below will be enough to provide shower activity, but with ample dry air in the low levels, it will be difficult to get any of this precipitation to reach the surface at first. With time, the lowest levels of the atmosphere will saturate and the precipitation that will be depicted by radar will reach the ground. The disturbance today will be hanging onto eastern MN tomorrow morning, so some drizzle activity will likely remain before gradually lifting out.
As Saturday progresses into Saturday night, the upper-level low will have quickly worked ESE with time. A majority of the precipitation will have affected the Dakotas with only eastern Dakota into MN the last places impacted by this potent disturbance Saturday night. This activity will gradually clear the area into Sunday morning with the exception being eastern MN where some light showers/drizzle may hang on. Strong winds are expected to accompany this disturbance Saturday night west and Sunday east. More on the wind potential later.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Saturday through 7am CDT Sunday: Areas of light showers and drizzle gradually work out of eastern MN as Saturday progresses while the next disturbance from the Rockies works into the western portions of the region. This disturbance will quickly swing through the Dakotas (especially ND and northern SD) through the day while MN begins to be affected by the rains after 4pm CDT Saturday. During the nighttime hours, areas of rain will lift through eastern ND into MN. It is not out of the realm of possibility that a few rumbles of thunder accompany the swath of rains that works through the region. After midnight Saturday into Sunday, the heaviest rains will be in MN before most of this activity clears the state by 10am CDT Monday. A few patches of drizzle may linger in northeastern MN Sunday afternoon. The vast majority of the region will be clear by this time, but another disturbance will work into ND Sunday night.
We could see some very strong wind gusts accompanying the upper-level low working through the area Saturday night into Sunday with wind gusts upwards of 35-40mph possible. Strong winds will gradually work into the western Dakotas Saturday afternoon, progressing eastward across the remainder of those states Saturday evening into the nighttime hours. Winds will pick up in western MN Saturday night with a persistent, strong NW wind across southern MN through the day Sunday. The winds will die down late Sunday evening as the storm system clears the area.
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: Cooler trends can be noted after the pre-Halloween storm system exits the region.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!