Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding light precipitation chances through Saturday morning. Before we get to the rain chances across portions of the area…I wanted to briefly discuss the high wind potential through the next few hours. Wind gusts of up to 45 mph will be possible in south-central SD before the winds lessen as the evening progresses into tonight. Wind Advisories are in effect in these areas until 7pm CDT this evening.
Areas across far southeastern SD into southern MN will observe positive vorticity advection (or an increase in upper-level energy over time) tonight as a disturbance from the central/southern Plains clips the region. This will usher in some moisture and bring in scattered, light rains to the circled region below. Precipitation won’t last long, however, as a cold front from the north will usher in drier air and force the rains to the south and east. Also, the northern extent of rains is questionable given the large sum of dry air to the north. During the day Friday, most of SD will observe plentiful sunshine while skies eventually clear across MN as the day progresses (excluding far northern MN where a weak piece of energy will begin to swing through).
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT this evening through 1pm CDT Friday: Areas of showers will lift northeastward from the Central Plains into far southeastern SD after 10pm CDT this evening and southern MN shortly thereafter. These rains will quickly sweep eastward with most activity out of southeastern SD before sunrise and southern MN by 10am CDT Friday. A few stray sprinkles can’t be ruled out in northern MN Friday morning given the energy, but with vast amounts of dry air it will likely not reach the ground. At first, the rains in the southern portions of the area may have a tough time reaching the ground as the lower levels of the atmosphere will need to become saturated.
Generally with the rain battling dry air, amounts will remain quite light in far southeastern SD and southern MN with most receiving less than 0.1″ of rain:
Simulated radar from 4pm CDT Friday through 1pm CDT Saturday: A notable piece of energy will work southeastward across northern MN Friday night which could spawn initially light, scattered rain showers/drizzle before a transition to snow occurs as colder air ushers into the area. A few of these could contain some moderate burst of snow at times. This convection could make it as far south as southern MN, but will be substantially light. The mixed precipitation in the area Saturday morning will lift out of the area with virtually all areas dry around 12pm CDT Saturday.
Generally, many will stay completely dry Friday night into Saturday morning, but a few areas could quickly pick up a dusting or a very isolated 0.5-1″ of snow.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!