Good afternoon everyone! This will be a quick update regarding rain chances through Friday. A weaker disturbance is lifting out of the Southern Plains into the southwestern portions of the area as of 3:45pm CDT. The energy associated with this disturbance will progress further northeast into the region overnight, providing shower chances. These rains will lift off to the east as Friday progresses, with most shower activity out and drier weather returning once more into this weekend.
Simulated radar through 1am CDT Saturday: Light showers continue to work in across southern KS with a batch of rain exiting western KS and progressing into south-central NE. During the nighttime hours, showers will expand northeast into eastern NE and western IA while additional moisture funnels into the eastern portions of KS and western MO. A decent coverage of light rains (50%) will be spread out across eastern KS/western MO Friday morning while lesser coverage lingers into the eastern two-thirds of IA. As Friday afternoon progresses, the vast majority of the rain activity in IA will be exiting while areas of convection will slowly drop southeastward across the southern two-thirds of MO and eventually south of the I-44 corridor around 3pm CDT. By 12am CDT Saturday, any remaining rains in southern MO will be forced out of the state as a cold front pushes this precipitation southward. It is important to note that starting off rains will have a difficult time reaching the surface as drier air in the low-levels will likely initially evaporate the precipitation (known as a virga). However, as more liquid falls in this lowest layer of the atmosphere, this layer will saturate and allow for rains to finally reach the surface.
Skies will clear behind Friday’s convection across the northwestern half of the region as drier air infiltrates. Cloud cover will slowly migrate eastward through the afternoon and evening hours. By the time 12am CDT Saturday rolls around, most clouds will have exited IA and KS with only MO being the remaining state with lingering clouds.
Total rainfall will be rather light for many areas with the vast majority receiving less than a tenth of an inch. There will be higher rain potential to the south where areas south of I-35 from Wichita, KS to Kansas City and then areas along and south of I-70 in MO receive between 0.1-0.3″ of rain. Isolated pockets of higher amounts are possible.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!