Good morning everyone! A disturbance is currently gliding along the northern periphery of the region as of 6:10am CDT with patchy rain showers impacting northeastern ND and northwestern MN. Some light snow showers can also be noted to the east of these rains. Another area to watch is beginning to lift into western SD. These two areas will continue to push east with more of SD and eventually southern MN receiving light rain activity.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: Light rains with perhaps some snowflakes mixing will continue across northeastern ND and northern MN this morning with most activity out of ND by the time 12pm CDT rolls around. However, patches of light rain/snow will persist in northern MN through the early evening hours. The disturbance lifting into western SD will gain coverage as it spreads further into the southern two-thirds of SD today. Rain showers will be common across southeastern SD and eventually southern MN while snow showers will fall in the southwestern portions of SD, especially the Black Hills. During the nighttime hours, this activity will drop southward into the Central Plains with only light rain/snow showers clipping the far southern portions of SD/MN by 7am CDT Sunday.
An upper-level low from southern Canada will drift southeastward into northeastern ND and northern MN Sunday, providing light snow risks to the circled area given the influx of energy into the area. Further south into southeastern SD and the southern third of MN, there will be shower chances but given the dryness in the mid-levels, it will be more difficult to send this light shower activity to the surface.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: Light, wrap-around snow showers will meander southeastward across northeastern ND and northern MN during the day Sunday, gradually tapering off and pushing east Sunday night. A couple light rain/snow showers will linger in the very far southern portions of the region as well.
Total precipitation through 7am CDT Monday reveals many picking up little to no moisture even with the weak waves moving through. Areas that see precipitation (northeastern ND, northern MN and the far southern portions of the area) should expect ~0.1-0.25″ of liquid roughly, with a few local patches of 0.5″ in the Black Hills.
Snow will also be limited in coverage across the area, with most accumulations remaining in northeastern ND into northern MN where pockets of 0.5-1.5″ of snow can’t be ruled out Sunday. Southeastern SD, especially the Black Hills, can also receive light snow accumulations of 1-3″.
After these couple of weak waves move through in the short-term, we see a significant drying trend region-wide into next week and beyond. Total precipitation through the next 7 days is on the left while percent of normal precipitation is on the right.
High temperature guidance over the next four days: A cold front ushers in much colder air once again tonight with record low maximums on tap across many areas in the Northern Plains Sunday.
Overnight low temperature guidance for the next four mornings: The vast majority of the region will be below freezing again tonight. Record low minimums are possible Sunday night in SD.
Dew point guidance over the next four days:
Wind guidance over the next four days: Winds will be gusty region-wide into early next week.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis: Targeting a warm-up late next work week.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!