Good afternoon everyone! We are continuing to track some light rain showers hanging onto the MN/IA state line as of 5pm CDT. This activity will wane and push out of the area over the next couple of hours. The next area to watch is impacting northwestern ND and this wave will continue to glide eastward across northern/eastern ND and northern MN this evening into the overnight hours. Saturday morning will have lingering shower activity across northern MN while shower coverage increases across the southern two-thirds of SD.
The second half of Saturday will feature some weak rain showers across southeastern SD into far southern MN while snow showers will fall in the southwestern portions of SD, especially the Black Hills. During the nighttime hours Saturday into Sunday, this activity will drop southward into the Central Plains with only light rain/snow activity clipping the far southern portions of SD/MN. An upper-level low from southern Canada will drift southeastward into northeastern ND and northern MN, providing the risks for light snow activity in these areas before this convection lifts eastward Sunday night.
Here’s a vorticity map (or energy) showing the areas that have the best potential for light snows Sunday given the influx of energy into the area. Further south into southeastern SD and the southern third of MN, there will be shower chances but given the dryness in the mid-levels, it will be more difficult to send this light shower activity further north.
Total precipitation through Sunday reveals many picking up little to no moisture even with the weak waves moving through. Areas that see precipitation (northeastern ND, northern MN and the very far southern portions of the area) should expect ~0.05-0.2″ of liquid roughly, with a few local patches of 0.25-0.4″ in far northwestern MN.
Snow will also be limited in coverage across the area, with most snow accumulations remaining in northeastern ND into northern MN where pockets of 0.5-1.5″+ of snow can’t be ruled out Sunday. The Black Hills of SD can also receive light snow accumulations of 1-3″.
While cooler than normal temperatures will remain across the area this weekend, the progression of the next cold front Sunday will usher in additional cold, Canadian air into the region, with high temperatures failing to reach 40ºF Sunday and lows dipping down into the lower 20s and perhaps even the teens in a few spots. Areas that have the potential for record low maximum temperatures are depicted in the white squares (left picture) and areas with the potential for record low minimums are shown in white circles (right picture)
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!