Good afternoon everyone! The wave of showers that impacted NE and KS earlier today is currently tracking through MO and southern IA as of 4:15pm CDT. Another smaller patch of light rain and even some snow mixing in can be noted in northwestern IA. This disturbance will continue off to the east through the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Simulated radar through 1am CDT tonight: Light shower activity will continue to work through the rest of MO/southern IA for the remainder of the afternoon hours, gradually lifting out this evening. Areas of light rain will remain in northwestern IA/far northeastern NE this afternoon before gradually waning this evening. Most of the light rains will have exited the region to the east by 12am CDT with southeastern MO the last to see these rains. However, the lower-level of the atmosphere will stay saturated through about 2am in eastern IA/MO so lingering patchy drizzle can’t be ruled out.
As the rains exit this evening, high pressure will build in overnight leading to quieter conditions. This brief lull in activity will be short-lived, however, as the remnants from Sergio brush the southern portions of the region later in the day Saturday while a cold front from the north brings additional activity.
Saturday will prove to be a more mild day across the area with shower activity from the remnants of Sergio clipping the southern portions of both KS and MO. The northern portions of NE will also observe light rain/snow showers as the cold front sags southward into the area. During the overnight hours Saturday night, areas of rain will linger across southern MO while banded precipitation develops in the Western Plains. Snows are likely to start out in western NE before drifting southward as more cold air intrudes into northwestern KS. A gradual transition to snow is expected during the morning hours Sunday across additional portions of southern NE and western/northern KS. A band of steady snow should set-up from western KS into southern NE for several hours during the day Sunday before decreasing late. Showers will be found in MO and IA Sunday with a few areas in northern MO and southwestern IA possibly seeing a brief turnover to snow. This disturbance will lift out of the area Sunday night while additional light shower activity remains in the far southern portions of the area.
Updated accumulating snow risk map: A band of snow will likely set-up leading to decent snowfall accumulations in northwestern KS due to strong frontogenesis (lift) and cold air intruding into the lower-levels of the atmosphere. Models have trended slightly snowier in western/southern NE, hence the medium snowfall risk as well as southwestern IA where a brief period of snow is possible Sunday afternoon/evening.
Total precipitation through Sunday evening: A general 0.2-0.5″ of liquid is expected across KS and MO with a few pockets in southern MO receiving upwards of 0.75-1″ of rain. This model picks up on a band of snow developing across northern/western KS, but this location is not set in stone and could position itself further north or south. It could also fade so this is something that will be monitored through the weekend.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!