Have a blessed day!
September forecast verification:
Updated November forecast:
Temperatures:
- Overall we have kept the orientation of November the same with the overall Fall theme turning into a warm Central and Western US with some cooler air in the East at times.
- We have a broad range of support among seasonable data for a very warm November and our analogs are also suggestive of this idea.
- Both top overall analogs and winter analogs have similar Central and Western US warmth for November.
- Recent La Niña years have generally seen warmer Novembers and we don’t see a good reason why that won’t be the case again. One risk to watch is some blocking that is setting up early in fall has the risk to keep the Polar Vortex a bit weaker to start the season which could lead to some cool risks at times in the E. US, though if anything analogs would suggest a slightly warmer risk to our forecast.
Precipitation:
- We’ve kept the orientation of the precipitation forecast largely unchanged. The Euro seasonal has a very similar idea overall to our thoughts from last month and our top analogs.
- Generally La Niña years feature a very lackluster or absent sub-tropical jet which will aid in drier risks for the southern half of the US especially when combined with with the Central US ridge/trough east signal at times.
- Given the lack of a sub-tropical jet that we are already seeing in September/October, we don’t see any reason that this really comes back later this fall especially with the continued falling ENSO state.
- With that in mind, we are going with widespread drier threats, bit an increasingly strong polar jet will begin to migrate further south in November and lead to more chances in the far northern US, southern Canada and the Great Lakes.