Iowa Video:
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Kansas/Missouri Video:
Good Monday morning everyone! We are watching a couple areas of showers and storms: One is in northern IA and the other is crossing the NE/IA line as of 9:15am CDT. This convection will continue to lift off to the ENE throughout the day with additional scattered showers and strong storms likely firing in eastern IA this afternoon and especially this evening.
Here’s the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook for strong to severe storms today. The area to note is eastern IA where elevated storm activity is expected to increase near the surface low/warm front later today. Ample moisture, lift and wind shear will all create an environment conducive for strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. A few isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, especially during the initiation when the storms are more discrete before becoming more linear.
Simulated radar through 1pm CDT Wednesday: Showers and storms will work through eastern NE and into IA during the day today. Strong storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours in eastern IA (main timeframe: 5-9pm CDT) with all the previously mentioned threats possible. These storms will likely congeal into a complex as it lifts through eastern IA, gradually lifting out of the state. Some back-building is possible along its western periphery this evening and overnight with far northern MO working in storm chances during this timeframe. Elsewhere, isolated showers and storms are possible as a weak disturbance lifts into southwestern NE during the overnight before diminishing. An area of isolated storms will also lift into southern MO this afternoon and evening before waning into tonight. Most areas will remain dry Tuesday with the exception being a weak wave of showers progressing through eastern NE and into IA late Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Areas of drizzle are possible in NE and IA late Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Wednesday: The heaviest rains will remain confined to IA (especially eastern portions of the state) through this timespan. A general 0.5-2″ of rain is likely in eastern IA with localized 2-3″ not out of the question. Elsewhere, where it storms in southern MO a quick 0.25-0.75″+ is possible with lighter rains in northern ND and eastern NE.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days via the European Model: A large expanse of heavy rains is likely to setup near a sharp temperature gradient across the region with multiple disturbances working through. Widespread rains of 2-4″+ is likely in portions of eastern NE/KS into IA and northern MO. Rains will begin to increase in coverage Wednesday night with a couple strong storms possible. As we head into Friday and Saturday, a front will lift into the area and persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, providing the heavy rains (possible flooding) shown below.
High temperatures over the next four days: A boundary draped across the region will lead to a sharp temperature gradient with 70s and 80s further south and 50s/60s further north. This boundary will lift northward tomorrow with temperatures climbing into Wednesday.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows will climb Wednesday morning across the area before a cold front drops temperatures in NE and IA into Thursday morning.
Dew point temperatures over the next four days: Humidity will be substantially (lower/higher) (north/south) of the boundary positioned across the region through tomorrow.
Wind guidance over the next four days: A windy day is on tap across the Central Plains Wednesday with gusts approaching 35mph in numerous locations.
Here are the temperature charts over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia: Notice there will be large temperature fluctuations over the next 7 days, especially in IA and NE where a lingering boundary will remain.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!