Good morning everyone! Here is your latest Long Range video analysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TE73wWpRwA
Click here to view High-Res PDF: Long Range Report
Temperatures:
Warmer than normal temperatures encompass the central and eastern portions of the country through the week 1 timeframe; well above normal temperatures (15 – 20+ F) expand into the central/eastern US by early next week
Cooler air (10+ F below normal) starts to seep into the N. Plains and Upper Midwest, gradually expanding into the Great Lakes region and Great Plains during the end of Week 1 and beginning of week 2
The first ~10 days of February are expected to verify above normal for much of the eastern half of the US.
By mid-February, shots of cooler than normal air will try to work into the eastern/central US
Precipitation:
Multiple clipper systems will move through the upper Midwest bringing light snow showers Feb. 2 – 4 (Imaged in top left corner)
Watching another system Feb. 5 – 6 that could bring potential severe weather to the OH Valley
Well above normal precipitation favored for much of the eastern half of the country (especially the TN Valley) going into mid-February
Multiple storm systems in play throughout mid-February and getting into late February
Observed Rainfall Totals:
Temperature Departures from Normal:
Monthly Temperatures Outlooks:
Monthly Precipitation Outlooks:
Weeks 1+2 Temperature Outlooks:
Weeks 1+2 Precipitation Outlooks:
Weeks 3+4 Outlooks:
Temperatures:
- PATTERN DRIVERS/Analogs: MJO Phase 6/7, Tropical Forcing, -AAM, North Pacific Pattern, Analogs, La Nina, Polar Vortex
- FAVORED EVOLUTION: While early February will be dominated by warmth, mid-late February should provide more opportunities for cold. While the period may start a bit warmer related to MJO phase 6 – MJO phase 7 favors more widespread and notable cold potential. This likely will be especially prevalent in the Central and NW US, but cold shots can bleed south and east at times. In addition, the Polar Vortex will be disrupted leading to an easier tap to cold air. That said, volatility thanks to La Niña forcing can continue to lead to some ups/downs and warmth southeast.
- RISKS: Warmer OH Valley (MJO phase 6).
Precipitation:
- PATTERN DRIVERS/Analogs: MJO Phase 6/7, Tropical Forcing, -AAM, North Pacific Pattern, Analogs, La Nina, Polar Vortex
- FAVORED EVOLUTION: Regardless of the MJO phase here, the pattern should favor numerous storms and above normal precipitation thanks to the southeast US ridge/warmth. Some split flow signals and colder air lead us to keep the Plains a bit drier, but not likely bone dry. With colder air mid-late month, winter storm opportunities should increase across the Midwest and interior NE US.
- RISKS: Wetter C. Plains/Midwest, Drier Pac NW (La Niña forcing).