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Brief, but very intense cold snap developing across the region as a lobe of the polar vortex dives south and rotates across the Midwest mid-week. This feature brings historic cold temperatures to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.
There’s all this talk of the polar vortex, but do you know what it is? It’s actually a naturally occurring circulation that resides over the Poles of our planet during the hemispheric winter, and this is a feature found on other planets too. This persistent upper-atmospheric circulation resides 10-30 miles above Earth’s surface. This keeps very cold, arctic air contained over the Poles. When the vortex weakens or breaks down (due to a weakened jet stream and less of a temperature gradient), it can send or displace that very cold air equatorward (what is happening now). Here is a great illustration of this:
Essentially we are taking the air that typically resides over the North Pole and displacing it into the upper Midwest. This is why we are talking about such an “extreme” level of cold! Don’t believe I can ever recall such a large area under a wind chill warning!!
Many records will be broken! South Bend, IN and Chicago, IL (just to name a couple) will see their coldest day in recorded history Wednesday. South Bend has never had a day with a high colder than -6º (1985), and Chicago has never had a high colder than -11 (1994). That changes Wednesday with forecast highs expected to not get above the negative teens in these cities. Check out all the record low highs that will be broken for tomorrow’s date (outlined in the white boxes):
The all-time coldest low temperature in Chicago history is -27º (1985). The current forecast from the NWS is -26º for Thursday morning. There is some data as cold as -29º, so there is certainly a chance! Regardless of whether they see their coldest low on record, essentially the entire Midwest will see new record lows for the date.
Make sure you are making necessary measures to stay safe – if you must travel the next couple of days make sure you have an emergency kit in your car with blankets, flashlights, jumper cables, etc in case your vehicle stalls. Bring any pets inside or in a sheltered location, and definitely leave your faucets trickling!! If your sink is against an exterior wall, open your cabinet doors to let the warmer air from the house keep your exterior pipes warmer.
Just as remarkable as the cold is, it’s also remarkable how rapidly and significantly temperatures will warm by the weekend. We are actually talking about a more spring-like feel by Saturday and Sunday!! History making cold to temperatures 20º above average all within 3 days!!!
The pattern next week gets active with multiple systems….you can stay on top of things by subscribing to our service!! We now offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather Subscription, which is updated during active weather. This will keep you aware of any impactful weather across the Midwest. Sign-up here: https://bamwx.com/register/midwest-extreme-wx-premium/
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