Good afternoon everyone! There are a few patches of light snow showers to discuss across the region as of 4:25pm CST. The first is the clipper system which is beginning to exit the far eastern portions of IA/northeastern MO. There are also a few scattered snow showers working across central NE while a batch of light snow is progressing towards the Springfield, MO area. Continuing into tonight, snow should remain rather limited in coverage, but note that a weak wave of snow showers will start to work in from the Northern Plains into eastern NE and western IA overnight.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: While under-modeled, expect snow showers to progress across southwestern MO through the evening hours. Elsewhere, the clipper system that brought some light snows to eastern IA today will linger into parts of northeastern MO during the early overnight before the rest of this activity pulls into the Ohio Valley by midnight. The wave from the Northern Plains will clip the northern portions of NE with snow showers through the evening and overnight while eastern NE and western IA are at play for light snows late tonight into the early morning hours Saturday. Light snows push across IA and northern MO Saturday morning, bringing a round of light snow accumulations before this wave exits by 9pm CST Saturday. Streaming upper-level energy will persist into northern NE Saturday afternoon through the night.
Snowfall will remain on the lighter side through Saturday night as the waves that work through the area will be weak. Anticipate a general 0.5-1″ of snow within the circled region below through the two waves that work through, but know that locally higher amounts close to 2″ can’t be ruled out in any heavier bursts of snow. Areas to the south and west will still mostly dry.
A stronger storm system from the Northern Plains will dive southeastward later in the day Sunday through Monday morning that will likely bring a swath of moderate to heavy snows to northeastern IA. Temperatures in these areas will be well below the freezing mark, so higher ratio snows are expected that will lead to significant snow accumulations. We’ll watch for a thin band of rain showers south and west of this band of snow that will work across southern IA and northern MO Sunday night, likely clipping southeastern NE and northeastern KS as well. The bulk of the snows will exit eastern IA around lunchtime Monday while rain showers progress across MO through the remainder of Monday. Some scattered flurries/snow showers may hang back for a time across eastern NE into IA and northern MO, but gradually clear into the evening. Back west, a weak pulse will allowed for scattered flurries/snow showers to emerge from SD into north-central NE Monday evening.
Winds won’t be that much of a concern across the area through Saturday, but note the High Plains of NE could see gusts of 35mph (mainly Saturday). As the stronger storm system works southeastward into the region Sunday, winds will start to pick up area-wide. Sunday night and especially Monday will be the timeframe to watch for very strong wind gusts of 45-50mph in KS and NE while winds gust to 35-40mph further east across IA and MO. This will help to lead to blowing and drifting snow in IA Monday which will further enhance any headaches caused by the snow. Further reductions in which chills should also be expected.
Here’s the latest snowfall threat map from late Sunday through Monday for the area: Northeastern IA has the greatest threat for 6″+ of snow from the potent storm system working in. While we’re still at a decent distance away from this event, localized pockets approaching 12″ will be possible, but most likely across far northeastern IA. The threat decreases the further south and west you head as forcing will not be as large at play. Regardless, some minor accumulations could work as far south and west as Des Moines, IA with low chances for accumulations in far northern NE.
Expect another frigid night across IA as temperatures are expected to plummet once again into the negatives (likely -10s in eastern IA). The winds will be rather light and variable, but any slight breezes will allow for wind chills to drop into the -20s. Some negative degree readings will be possible in far northern MO but elsewhere will observe Saturday morning lows in the teens and lower 20s. There will be a slight improvement come Sunday morning, but temperatures should still fall into the negatives in the eastern half of IA with wind chills between -10 to -25ºF. Warm air advection in the High Plains will only allow temperatures to drop into the lower 30s Sunday morning.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!