Good morning everyone! The winter storm continues to track eastward early this morning, with snows starting to exit to the east from far eastern IA. Warmer air across southern MO is keeping most of the precipitation found in these areas as rain while colder air working in from the west is helping to squeeze out any residual moisture in the atmosphere and continue scattered light snow showers/flurries for northern and far western MO. Precipitation will continue to spread eastward today, with snow coverage in picking up in south-central/southeastern MO this afternoon and evening as backside snow develops along the western periphery of the low pressure system.
Simulated radar through 9pm CST this evening: Lighter snows at this point in time in eastern IA will slowly fade and exit east over the next few hours while a moderate-heavy deformation snow band develops in south-central MO by 12pm CST this afternoon. Warmer air for locations just east in far southeastern MO will keep precipitation as rain by this time. While not very well depicted, scattered light snow showers/flurries will linger in the rest of MO through the remainder of the morning and a good portion of the afternoon before subsiding. Progressing through the afternoon hours, the deformation band in south-central MO will shift eastward and impact the remainder of southeastern MO by 4-5pm CST. The snow will be particularly heavy at times, but will slowly come to an end west to east through the evening hours. By 12am CST tonight, the bulk of the snow will have lifted east with just scattered light snow showers/flurries hanging around in southeastern MO.
Winds will continue to pick up with this system as it works eastward today. Expect gusts to approach 35mph (in particular MO) at times through the daytime hours. Winds will be slightly weaker in IA, but still gust to 25-30mph. Heading into the overnight hours, winds will subside west to east across IA and MO, but before this point definitely expect lower visibilities in areas still observing snow as well as blowing/drifting snow.
Here’s a look at additional snow accumulations through this evening: Most areas at this point in time won’t receive much more in the way of measurable snowfall, excluding locations right along the Mississippi River in eastern IA where up to 0.5″ of more snow is possible. Also, the deformation band developing late this morning and persisting through the PM hours in south-central/southeastern MO will likely dump anywhere from 2-6″ of snow before all is set and done.
Take a look at the low temperatures come Sunday morning: Many in IA and the northern third of MO are expected to fall into the negatives with wind chill readings likely to dip into the negative teens in these areas. Further south, temperatures will remain warmer (single digits and teens) but this is all relative.
Overall, a good portion of the area will be dry Sunday with arctic high pressure settling in across the area. However, a clipper system from the Northern Plains will quickly glide southeastward across central IA starting early Sunday morning before fading/exiting by 9pm CST Sunday. This wave will be battling dry air initially due to the substantially drier/colder air in place across this portion of the region, so in general we are looking at lighter, powdery snows with this system at this time. It is important to note that the European model is further south and west with this solution (plausible given northeast biases with clipper systems) and brings snow chances to northeastern/east-central MO before fading.
Total snowfall from the clipper system Sunday reveals generally minor snow accumulations across a narrow corridor stretching through central IA. Snow accumulations of ~0.5″ will be possible, but highly dependent on how much saturation can occur at the surface to bring snowflakes down to the surface. Localized pockets approaching 1″ are possible, particularly just east of Spirit Lake, IA.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!