Good afternoon everyone! A broad range of advisories and warnings have been issued across the northern portions of the region, including Winter Weather Advisories for light snow accumulations and a glaze of ice for many in NE and northeastern KS. Winter Storm Warnings have been hoisted for most in IA as significant snow accumulations are anticipated while Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for northern MO and southeastern IA.
Warm air advection across NE and KS will help to initiate the development of fog this evening and especially tonight (as shown by the darker shadings below). This will likely be locally dense in spots. In NE, this will likely be in the form of freezing fog given temperatures below 32ºF, so slick spots on the roadways will be likely in the areas that develop this fog. We can’t rule out a few slick spots developing in KS overnight, but most areas will stay just above 32ºF.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Friday: It all begins in northwestern NE tonight, then spreads southeastward through the day Friday. Snows coverage will gradually build across the far northern portions of NE by 4am CST with periods of freezing drizzle developing further south across the southern two-thirds of NE. Northwestern IA will also start to build in snows from the west around 4am CST and then gaining coverage during the morning hours across the northern and western portions of the state. Further south in KS, light showers will develop while some light freezing rain will be inching southward across the northern-most row of counties in the state Friday morning.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Friday through 12am CST Sunday: The arctic blast and snow will continue to shift southward Friday evening into the day Saturday. Lighter snows will have a stronghold on NE Friday afternoon and evening with heavier snows further east into IA. Colder air funneling southward will allow the rain showers in KS to gradually shift to snow Friday evening while also becoming heavier in intensity as well. Watch for MO to work in heavier snow coverage north and west into Friday night with periods of rain further southeast in southern/southeastern MO. By 6am CST Saturday, the bulk of the snow activity will have exited NE while a deformation band remains in far eastern KS, southeastern IA and the northwestern half of MO. This will gradually work eastward through the day Saturday with most snows done falling Saturday evening, even in MO.
As previously stated, we are watching for freezing rain issues across portions of NE and far northern KS, but also even northern MO as we observe the transition from rain to snow. These could cause some real travel concerns as a light glaze of ice will be likely (upwards of 0.05″ of ice accretion). The freezing fog concerns tonight also enhances this risk as well, so definitely be prepared for slick roadways due to ice in these areas.
Winds will pick up as this storm system deepens over the area Friday and Saturday. Expect gusts to approach 35-40mph at times, especially in KS. Winds will be lighter, on the verge of 25-30mph elsewhere, that will likely lead to reduced visibilities along with blowing and drifting snow.
Here is our latest thinking regarding snowfall totals in the region through Saturday: Model guidance discrepancies continue to be rather large even with this storm system right at our doorstep. Changes from this morning’s update include higher totals in northeastern KS as some guidance suggests a decent deformation band of snow develops in this area Friday night, along with the inclusion of most of IA in the 5-8″ swath of snow. Please note that locally higher amounts are likely if not expected, but exact locations are still unknown. Northeastern KS could also trend higher pending overnight guidance. Regardless, snow covered roads are expected over the northeastern half of the region which will lead to hazardous travel conditions, especially with increasing winds blowing and drifting the snow.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!