Good Friday Afternoon! After looking at the latest data, there is still a high amount of uncertainty and an overall lack of confidence with this forecast even though this event is just a few hours out from starting. As we have been saying over the past couple days, this is looking to be a “nowcast” situation where constant updates will be needed because this is certainly a tricky forecast with everything from precipitation types, totals, and timing. All details discussed in this video are the *current* favored solutions, however do not be surprised at all if forecast details change by the time another update is sent out this evening. This is a very fluid forecast:
Simulated radar from 5 PM CT this evening through 6 AM CT Sunday morning. These images go hour by hour:
Here is a model trend loop showing how totals have shifted rather significantly over the most recent runs. The track and strength of the low, as well as temps differing by a degree or two vs. what is modeled will have a massive impact on totals and precip type:
