Good afternoon! Thanks for checking out today’s hazardous weather blog, brought to you by Mr. Quik Home Services out of Indianapolis! You can rely on Mr. Quik’s team of professionals for all your heating, cooling, plumbing, and electrical needs in your home! With the spring storm season here, basements and crawlspaces are prone to flooding. It would be a great time to get your sump pump inspected, or possibly get a new one installed to handle all the downpours this spring and summer! Call Mr. Quik at 317-468-9170. Read more about it at mrquikhomeservices.com. Be sure to “LIKE” Mr. Quik on Facebook, where BAM Wx provides daily updates: https://www.facebook.com/MisterQuik/.
We all hear about how our climate has been steadily warming on Earth, with global temperatures having risen 0.8ºC since 1880, according to NOAA GISS research. An interesting publication was made by a team of Midwestern researches last week, with findings that the Great Lakes area has experienced a 10% increase in precipitation from 1901 to 2015. I wanted to take a closer look at our “local” climate here and see if we can find a discernible trend in temperatures and precipitation over the past 120 years.
Briefly – just want to confirm that climate has changed throughout Earth’s history. Climate change is NORMAL. 85-90% of Earth’s history has been WARMER than it is today. And history has shown humans have thrived more during warmer times and not during colder times. A very warm period in the 11-1400s allowed the Vikings to settle Greenland, and there is some speculation that corn could of been planted during that time, based on corn pollen discovered. Of course, the debate today is how humans are disrupting the natural climate cycles with the use of excess greenhouse gas, which limits how much heat can escape back into space. Our oceans absorb roughly 33% of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) that is emitted to the atmosphere.
How do we know what our climate was like thousands, millions, billions of years ago?? Scientists use “proxy data” to reconstruct past climates where there aren’t any written records from humans. They utilize tree rings, glacial ice cores, sea level changes, and past flora/fauna (plant/animal life), fossils, coral, insects, sediment cores, glacial deposits, speleothems (structures formed in caves from deposits of minerals from water), and sand dunes.
Historical data is also used to reconstruct climates around 1000 years ago. This includes documentary evidence such as records of harvest and crop planting, diaries, phonological records, government documents, and shipping records. Of course, historical data depends upon where humans settled and if they wrote down what they were seeing.
Instrumental data is the most recent type of climate data, which we depend upon today. These are measurements taken with weather instruments. Here’s what is mind boggling: Only 1/10,000,000 of Earth’s history is covered by this type of data, given this just arose in really the past 170 years. As we gather more of this valuable information, we will create a better picture of Earth’s climate trends in the centuries to come.
Looking back at Earth’s history and how climates and humans evolved is fascinating, and a subject I would love to delve further in. For now, I want to take a simple approach looking at our local climate and see what changes have shown up in the instrumental data since 1900.
For Indianapolis, here is a look at the data in 30 year increments from 1900 to 2018. A minimum of 30 years is needed to get an accurate depiction of an area’s climate. Remember climate is the weather averaged over a long period of time such as “California has dry summers” or “Minnesota has snowy winters.” Weather is simply looking at the now such as “it’s raining outside” or “it’s going to rain this weekend.” Climate is what you expect, weather is what is happening.
Here is a table of average annual temperatures and precipitation in 30 year stamps from 1900 to now for Indianapolis:
What is more discernible is the trend in precipitation. It has clearly been on an increase in the last several climate periods. It’s alarming in just the past 28 years to see nearly a 4″ jump in average annual precipitation!!! Simply put, the warmer the temperatures are, the more water vapor the air can hold, theoretically contributing to more rain.
To get a better picture, let’s break it down to 10 year increments from 1950 to now, and see the trends: Biggest changes have come since 1990.
To break down further into seasons, here is a like at trends in temperatures and precipitation during December-February from 1900 to now. This latest climate period has been warmer and wetter than any others, but not significantly so.
Breaking down further in 10 year increments during December-February, there is not a noticeable change in climate trends:
The summer data, however, does show a clear progressively wetter trend in each climate period from 1900 to now. No real trend in temperatures.
Breaking down in 10-year increments since 1950, you can see temperatures progressively increased in these periods since 1970. Precipitation overall has trended a bit wetter.
When you look around the region, Louisville, KY has seen some incredibly wet weather. It almost doesn’t seem real to think 8 of the 10 wettest years on record have all taken place since 1990, and 4 of the top 5 wettest years have all occurred after 2004.
Remarkable, huh? How about Chicago? Yes, it’s also getting wetter. Remarkable that 3 of the top 5 wettest years have all occurred since 2008.
Interestingly, Indy is kind of the odd ball not seeing any recent years in the top 10 wettest on record, except 2003 being #10. However, as we saw above, Indy is still seeing an overall increase in annual precipitation over time. The image below shows the change in precipitation across the U.S. since 1901. Many areas running 5-15% wetter.
The great news about this data is that it isn’t made up or altered, this is actual observed data and the facts. The climate is in general getting warmer and definitely wetter. How much is natural vs. man-induced or “anthropogenic?” Just look around. All the time we are seeing forests being cut-down and turned into roadways and buildings. Deforestation is said to be the second leading cause of man-made global warming on a global scale, with much of it contributing from the Amazon Rain Forecast. It is estimated that 18.7 million acres of forecast are lost every year. Just how does deforestation alter our climate?
Trees reduce the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by photosynthesis. The more trees we lose, the more CO2 will be left in the air, contributing to increased greenhouse gases. Satellite images reveal the changing landscape. Check out the changes in an area of Cambodia, in Southeast Asia between 2001-2016.
With less forests and vegetation, this can contribute to increased CO2 (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere. This has been a small contributor as of late to the CO2. Remember trees through the process of photosynthesis remove CO2 from the atmosphere, so the more forests we lose, the less CO2 that is removed from the atmosphere. Deforestation can lead to desertification of an area as the trees that once intercepted the rain and retained the soil are gone, causing the rain to go straight into runoff so it is not able to fully replenish the soil with moisture, which leads to less evaporation. This means the sun’s energy can go directly to heating the land, evaporating whatever moisture is left and further depleting it. While deforestation overall does lead to a drier climate, (contrary to our observations above), it does further lead to warming of our planet due to increased CO2. So coming up on Earth Day – you’ll do our planet a favor by planting some trees!
There are human and natural causes of climate change. Natural causes of climate change include sunspot activity which impact the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth by a small propitiation, ), changes in Earth’s orbit around the sun and tilt over time, and volcanic eruptions. The leading cause of human induced global warming is from the burning of fossil fuels (nonrenewable energy sources) such as coal, crude oil, and natural gas, which contribute to increased CO2 in our atmosphere. The concern for this is that a positive feedback loop develops where if the atmosphere starts to warm, it increases the amount of water vapor, which will increase the greenhouse effect, which reduces the amount of heat able to escape from Earth. Here is a great illustration of the processes involved we have discussed:
A very interesting study was released by Matthew Fitzpatrick and Robert Davis, relating what a climate of various cities would be more like by 1980 if CO2 emissions continue unchanged. Climate here would be more like what you find currently in Tennessee and Arkansas.
We hope you found this blog interesting, with a better idea of what trends we are seeing in our climate based on actual observations. If you have any input on what you have noticed, we would love to hear your thoughts!
Our summer webinar is coming up!! Here at BAMwx we are always looking a season ahead. We are currently finalizing research for the summer outlook. Our summer webinar will be Wednesday, April 24th at 11AM EDT with a presentation of our research and forecast, along with a live Q&A. Sign-up is easy and free: bamwx.com/webinar.
With spring and summer season approaching, things are about to get busy when it comes to outdoor activities! Does your business revolve around weather and need an accurate, personable weather forecast? Here are some reasons why you should look into what we offer vs. everything else:
Why would I pay for a weather service when I can get free weather on my phone? Relying on free weather information such as free, automated weather apps is not practical if you want to run a successful business. They are solely based on raw computer model output with zero human element. These free apps also have a tendency to send you erroneous alerts about rain or snow coming, even when there isn’t a cloud in the sky! I can’t count with my own fingers how many times I get incorrect snow/rain alerts to my phone. I have more examples than this picture below, but I think you get the point.
What our service can provide you:
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You can inquire at bamwx.com/contact-us or [email protected].
Our commercial personal subscription will get you a daily, detailed local weather forecast (available anywhere in the central/northern Plains to the Ohio Valley), and a long-range forecast. Monthly outlooks out to 6 months always available, and long-range forecasts are updated daily with forecasts based on research and not just pure models. This + the on-call option gives you an amazing package of information and your own personal meteorologist which means you always know what to expect. It’s so much better than any weather packages you have seen before!
For weather enthusiasts who are just looking for updates during active weather, we also offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather subscription to keep you updated during active weather in the Midwest!!
