Good Tuesday morning everyone. We are carefully keeping an eye on a cluster or rain and storms out to the west, but we generally anticipate the cluster to continue to weaken and diminish before it can reach the Round Rock area this morning. Here’s a look at the current radar:
As we work into this afternoon and evening we will build a decent amount of instability into the area with strengthening low-mid level winds. This will help pop scattered rain/storm chances especially after ~7PM. Due to the late firing of these, it will limit the northward extent of these chances, so we’ll stick with a 40% storm chance for today.
Tomorrow is a tricky forecast with Round Rock right on the line of a swath of heavy rain and scattered rain. As of now we believe the location of the low level jet favors the bulk of the rain tomorrow in areas especially east of Round Rock. With that being said, given some instability and the nose of the jet clipping the area tomorrow, we will stick with a 60% chance that we at least see some showers tomorrow. It’s important to note that if we see a small shift west this would increase rain chances closer to models like the Euro/GFS/NMM. Here’s a look at the simulated radar tomorrow:
This main area of energy will shift off to the east as we work into Thursday, but there is still some lingering energy, instability and a low-level jet that likely allows for the development of scattered rain/storm activity in the afternoon and evening hours.
Rainfall potential through Thursday. Note, if we see small westward shift tomorrow the 1-2″ amounts would be closer to the Round Rock area.
Here’s a look at the latest 7 day outlook:
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!