6-3-19 Norfolk Harborfest: Analyzing rain chances and forecast risks for late week/weekend. Storm chances Wednesday. B.

Today’s Video: 

Good Monday morning everyone! Overall, shouldn’t see any problems today aside from some gusty winds. 

Today’s Weather Overview: 

  • Dry mid-level air should keep us precipitation-free throughout the day even with a bit of upper-level energy.
  • Winds will gust from the N/NE at up to 30 MPH at times with sustained winds of 10-15 MPH. 
  • Temperatures will near 80F this afternoon. 

The drier conditions should persist, but we’ll have to watch for an increase in storm chances as we work into Wednesday evening. Timing of these storms arrival looks to be be between 6-9PM in a somewhat scattered nature but some of these storms could be strong with gusty winds the main risk:

As we work into Thursday through the weekend, there are *major* differences in model data. The American data keeps us mainly dry for the weekend while the European data brings widespread rain risks. At this time we favor the European data with more rain chances for the weekend, but it remains a very tricky forecast with an upper-level low to our west dictating the pattern. These lows are notorious for unusual progressions, so we’ll need to keep a very close eye on this moving forward. With all of this in mind, the simulated radar for Thursday through Sunday evening is below.

Total rainfall from the European through Sunday:

As of now we keep our rain chances cautiously on the lower side given the data discrepancies and potential for shifts, but we note that there’s the potential for the weekend to need to trend wetter with these chances. 

If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!