4-4-19 ND/SD Forecast: Tracking scattered rain chances + warmup into the weekend…eyeing storm system mid-next week. I.

Today’s Video:

Good morning everyone! A few light showers will be possible through the remainder of the morning in far eastern SD while a wave clipping northern ND will work eastward, bringing a batch of rain mixing with snow at times. Spotty showers will be possible this afternoon and evening elsewhere, but will be very limited and higher chances for isolated showers develop in southeastern SD mainly from midnight onwards. Simulated radar through 12am CDT tonight:

Slim isolated shower chances remain in southeastern ND tonight into Friday morning, then a boundary develops in eastern SD where scattered showers will likely develop late in the afternoon before quickly working eastward into southern MN. Watch for a weak wave to bring light showers in western ND late Friday night into Saturday morning, with scattered showers and a few storms developing into Saturday afternoon across the Dakotas. Better coverage lifts into the eastern Dakotas Saturday night and pushes east into MN by noon Sunday. 

Total precipitation through Sunday reveals a general 0.1-0.5″ in northern/eastern ND into eastern SD. Localized pockets over 0.5″ will be possible in eastern SD. 

We’re eyeing fog risks again Friday and Saturday morning as warmer air works over the cooler grounds. The best risks for fog will be in the eastern Dakotas Friday morning, then eastern ND and northern SD Saturday morning.

A more substantial threat to watch will come as early as Tuesday and lift out Thursday. Snow will be likely on the northern periphery of this storm system, however the exact placement of the surface low and strength are yet to be determined. Regardless, there is the risk for accumulating snow (currently favoring SD at this time) given there are signals that support such an event into mid-next week. Know that there is something there and will need monitoring.

Total precipitation over the next 7 days: A large sum of this comes with mid-next week’s wave, which is likely skewing these amounts. However, current guidance suggests SD with the heaviest precipitation amounts (~1-2″ of liquid possible) with substantially lighter amounts heading into ND. Note that this is subject to change as trends in mid-next week’s system will alter what is shown.

Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days:

Wind forecast over the next four days:

Here’s a look at the city charts for Bismarck, Pierre and Sioux Falls: