Good afternoon everyone! We continue to track a weak wave of precipitation working through the western portions of SD and in more scattered areas across central/western NE. Precipitation had been able to stay predominantly as snow in northwestern SD but warmer air just south working in is allowing for more of a changeover to rain for most of these areas at this point (as of 3:30pm CDT). Expect this precipitation to work eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, though will be on a weakening trend as it does so as the evening progresses.
Simulated radar through 12pm CDT Tuesday: Warmer air will eat away at most light snow coverage and generally change the precipitation over to mainly rain through the evening with a few light snow showers remaining a possibility into north-central SD. Further south, scattered showers focused in the central and western thirds of NE become increasingly weaker and isolated in nature as they lift eastward tonight, though a few heavier showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder is possible with a small batch working through far southwestern NE into northwestern KS through the evening into early night. Isolated showers will stay possible late overnight into Tuesday morning mainly in the eastern half of NE, northeastern KS and southeastern SD (mixing at times with frozen precipitation in SD), but overall trend much drier progressing into the afternoon hours Tuesday with increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Additional precipitation through Tuesday morning reveals scattered pockets of 0.1-0.2″ of liquid focused in south-central SD, western NE and northwestern KS. Even in these locations, some will miss out and receive little in the way of measurable precipitation, which will largely be the case elsewhere across the region, excluding up to a few hundredths of an inch of liquid possible in eastern NE and northeastern KS. Any additional snowfall will be very minor, if any, and occur until evening across northwestern SD. While a low threat, a patchy very light glaze of ice is possible in western SD where any mixing can occur, but should be quite limited.
While the fog has lifted across northern NE and western SD from this morning, watch for the redevelopment of fog tonight into Tuesday morning across the High Plains. Temperatures will be falling to near freezing in these areas overnight, so a few patchy slick spots cannot be ruled out before temperatures drastically warm and the fog lifts as the morning progresses. There is an additional risk for patchy fog to develop once more Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, this time in western NE and northern SD. The fog will likely be thicker in northern SD due to the warmth spreading over the existing, melting snowpack. However, most areas will be above freezing so slick spots will be minimal if any.
We are going to enjoy a very warm mid-week and will feel spring-like for virtually all areas of SD, NE and KS, though the melting snowpack in north-central/northeastern SD will likely keep it colder in those areas. Regardless of that fact, temperatures warming into the 60s will be prevalent Tuesday elsewhere and then even into the 70s Wednesday for NE and KS. However, during the springtime frontal boundaries like to set up between a colder airmass and a warmer one to the south, which will be the story near the KS/NE border Thursday and into central KS Friday. Watch for increased rain risks especially Thursday and Friday (snow northwest) given the quasi-stationary boundary setting up during this timeframe.
With that surge of warmth building into the region into mid-week and the tightening of the pressure gradient, winds will become breezy and gust 25-35mph, particularly in NE and KS late work week into the weekend. Before this time, gusts up towards 25mph will be possible just due to the pumping in of south-southwesterly winds providing the warmth we’ll observe.
The problem with the sudden warmth and then a frontal boundary developing across NE and KS Thursday through Saturday will be the increased precipitation chances that will come attached to this. Rain chances should stay more isolated to scattered in nature Thursday in eastern KS/NE (northern SD with mixed precipitation) but we are eyeing a dose of heavier rain across NE and northern KS from Friday into the overnight. Instability will increase to the south in southeastern KS, so a couple chances for stronger storms will be possible based on analogs. The main area of low pressure will move across the region Friday and lift east during the day Saturday, drawing in colder air with elevated risks for a round of accumulating snows in southwestern/far southern SD and working east as Friday progresses across NE. Snow risks will decline late Friday night into early Saturday morning for NE with the bulk of the precipitation fading and exiting as Saturday continues, trending drier. Remember that this would be on top of the heavier rains that fell prior to the switchover to snow in NE. Even more impressive is that two days prior would feature temperatures in the 70s to be followed by snow.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days (majority coming with the late week/early weekend system) features a continuing concerning look as many areas in NE do not need any additional precipitation over the already saturated grounds. However, this is looking to be more the case as precipitation amounts ranging between a general 0.5-2″ are likely during this timespan. More flooding will be likely across portions of NE and southern SD given how things are looking to play out late week. The good news is that current trends keep the areas with remaining snowpack in SD drier. Definitely be sure to keep a close eye on the forecast trends as the week progresses and be aware of any potential fluctuations in track/intensity that could exacerbate issues.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!