Today’s Video:
Good Wednesday morning everyone! The storm system that will bring extreme blizzard conditions, heavy rain and ice accumulations is beginning to push northward into the area. The center of the low is already down to 978 mb — only 6 away from the all-time record strongest for the Plains. We are seeing a mix of snow, rain and freezing rain which will only expand and intensify throughout the day today:
Blizzard warnings are in effect for much of the Dakotas and into NW Minnesota with Flash Flood and Flood Watches in effect for much of Minnesota due to melting snow and heavy rainfall:
Snow will begin to expand over more of South Dakota as we work throughout the afternoon today. Heavy rain will occur in Eastern SD expanding into much of Minnesota by the mid-afternoon hours. On the rain/snow line a mix of freezing rain and sleet will likely occur. Into the late evening and overnight hours snow will expand into SE ND and into NW MN with rain continuing in parts of Eastern SD and the northern half of Minnesota. Snow will slowly work out tomorrow with lighter backside snow continuing into the evening and overnight:
Given the robust nature of this system, extreme moisture for this time of year, frontogenesis and intense upper-level dynamics, the snow amounts will likely be quite extreme. We believe that an area in SW SD can receive 16-24″+ of snowfall with Blizzard conditions ongoing throughout the majority of the snow. 
Snow rates could exceed 1-2″ per hour at times leading to whiteout conditions, impossible travel power outages when combined with the strong wind gusts:
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next 2 days. Note, while snow is falling winds could be gusting at 40-55 MPH, isolated higher leading to power outages, downed trees, blowing/drifting snow and impossible travel.
We will also deal with the potential for freezing rain and sleet on the eastern side of the snow. We favor the NAM3 solution (top solution) right now but note that confidence is very low given 1 degree difference in temperature can make the difference between sleet and freezing rain. We favor the freezing rain solution given current warm air advection, but note that with the strong winds it will be difficult to accumulate on power lines but 0.25-0.5″ and isolated totals up to 0.75-1″ cannot be ruled out:
Here’s a look at total precipitation with this system. Note, flooding is certainly on the table in Eastern SD and Minnesota where above freezing temperatures will produce melting and lead to high creeks, rivers and streams as excess moisture cannot be absorbed in a frozen ground:
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next 4 days:
Here’s a look at hourly forecasts from the European model for Pierre, Bismarck, Fargo and Minneapolis:
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next 4 days:
Here’s a look at 7 day precipitation totals from the European. The pattern will get much drier following the passage of this storm:
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!