Becks – Page 356 – BAM Weather

1-19-21 Long Range: Warmer signals growing for February. Analyzing top pattern drivers and risks for week’s 3/4. B.

19

Jan

1-19-21 Long Range: Warmer signals growing for February. Analyzing top pattern drivers and risks for week’s 3/4. B.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/z80ncLIMnG4?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open slides in HD): Long-Range Analysis 1-19 Key Points: Major warmer trends in models over the weekend as they have continued to correct away from the cold trends seen early this month. MJO signals continue into phase 4 and…

1-19-21 South America: Breaking down the atmospheric pattern drivers & research for Feb forecast. K.

19

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-19-21 South America: Breaking down the atmospheric pattern drivers & research for Feb forecast. K.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/yFZMdMSLj14 Week 1 outlooks: Week 2 outlooks:

1-18-21 Long-range: MJO likely culprit behind major model errors and subsequent weekend warmer corrections. B.

18

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-18-21 Long-range: MJO likely culprit behind major model errors and subsequent weekend warmer corrections. B.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/B14w9k5qh1M?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 1-18-21 Long-Range Analysis Key Points: Major warmer trends on data over the weekend as they have corrected away from their bigger cold idea at the end of their runs. As we discussed Friday, issues with the…

1-18-21 South America: Recapping weekends rains + discussing latest precipitation trends into early February. K.

18

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-18-21 South America: Recapping weekends rains + discussing latest precipitation trends into early February. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/miOrqK_xv4g?hd=1 Weekend rainfall observations: Week 1 forecast: Week 2 forecast:

1-15-21 Long-range: Discussing volatile model trends and favored pattern evolution into February. B.

15

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-15-21 Long-range: Discussing volatile model trends and favored pattern evolution into February. B.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/hmMELAQfe8s?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 01-15-21 Long-Range Analysis Key Points: Model trends may be volatile late into Week 2, but generally expecting the warmer trends that have occurred the past week to persist as we get closer to the forecast dates.…

1-15-21 South America: Discussing some differences in our forecast vs latest model guidance today for pattern ahead. K.

15

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-15-21 South America: Discussing some differences in our forecast vs latest model guidance today for pattern ahead. K.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/XxQoezIwZhU Updated week 1 forecasts: Updated week 2 forecasts:

1-14-21 Long-range: Discussing the risks to using model data late week 2 + more active pattern likely into late January. B.

14

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-14-21 Long-range: Discussing the risks to using model data late week 2 + more active pattern likely into late January. B.

*No new video today as our thoughts from yesterday remain consistent. We continue to be cautious of volatile model runs suggesting cold especially for the last 3 - 4 days of the model run. Models are struggling with the lack of an arctic air source due to the main polar vortex…

1-14-21 South America: Sharing latest drought maps + discussing data starting to see our anticipated pattern change ahead. K.

14

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-14-21 South America: Sharing latest drought maps + discussing data starting to see our anticipated pattern change ahead. K.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/Cxrll-cyG3o?hd=1 Latest drought maps for Argentina and Brazil: Week 1 outlooks: Week 2 outlooks:

1-13-21 Long-range: Analyzing precipitation trends into late January. Looking ahead at analogs for spring/summer. B.

13

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-13-21 Long-range: Analyzing precipitation trends into late January. Looking ahead at analogs for spring/summer. B.

Today's video: http://youtu.be/3p9-rOnOt_8?hd=1 PDF report (click link to the right to open in HD): 01-13-21 Long-Range Analysis Key Points: A train of “clipper systems” are anticipated throughout the next week or two. Due to the proximity of systems, tight pressure gradients produce high winds, concentrated in the central US over…

1-13-20 South America: Breaking down latest atmospheric drivers for pattern next 2 weeks. K.

13

Jan

By Vince Bryan

1-13-20 South America: Breaking down latest atmospheric drivers for pattern next 2 weeks. K.

Today's video: https://youtu.be/AIkibIIwPC8 Latest 24 hour rainfall observations: Updated soil moisture anomalies vs 1 month ago: Week 1 forecasts: Week 2 forecasts: